Citizens Financial's to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Citizens Financial Group, Inc. CFG is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 15, 2025, before the opening bell. The bank’s third-quarter 2025 earnings and revenues are expected to have increased from the year-ago quarter’s reported level.

In the second quarter, CFG witnessed a rise in net interest income (NII) and non-interest income, along with an increase in loan balance. However, higher expenses and declining deposit balances were major headwinds.

The company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice and matched it once. On average, the positive surprise is 2.41%.

Citizens Financial Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Citizens Financial Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Citizens Financial Group, Inc. Quote

Factors to Influence CFG's Q3 Earnings

NII: The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 25 basis points in September to a range of 4.00–4.25%. With rates remaining relatively stable throughout most of the quarter, funding/deposit costs likely stabilized, supporting modest growth in CFG’s NII.

Management expects NII to rise 3-4% in the third quarter of 2025 from the second quarter’s reported level. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $1.49 billion, indicating a 3.4% rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate for the metric is pegged at $1.48 billion.

Loans: The overall lending environment remained impressive in the third quarter. According to the Federal Reserve’s latest data, demand for commercial, industrial, and consumer loans was robust in the first two months of the quarter. This is likely to have supported the company’s average interest-earning assets growth.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest-earning assets is pegged at $197.3 billion, indicating a marginal rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure. We estimate the metric to be $198.2 billion.

Non-Interest Income: Though mortgage rates declined notably during the third quarter, they remained relatively range-bound. As such, refinancing activity and origination volumes have not witnessed significant growth. As a result, Citizens Financial’s mortgage banking fees are likely to have negatively impacted in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage banking fees is pegged at $60.9 million, indicating a 16.6% decline from the prior quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate for the metric is pegged at $63.9 million.

The quarter witnessed heightened market volatility and client activity because of the uncertainty over the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and changes in the Fed’s policy stance. Also, the volatility was high in equity markets. Hence, Citizens Financial's trust and investment services fees are likely to have recorded improvements in the quarter to be reported. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for trust and investment services fees is pegged at $91.6 million, indicating a 4% increase from the previous quarter’s reported figure.

Global mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the third quarter of 2025 rebounded after reaching lower levels in April and May following President Trump’s announcement of ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plans. However, deal-making activities picked up as corporates adjusted to the evolving macroeconomic and trade environment. This is likely to have supported CFG’s capital markets fees in the third quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for capital markets fees is pegged at $130.6 million, indicating a sequential rise of 24.3%. We estimate the metric to be $113.3 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the service charge and fee revenues is pegged at $114.3 million, indicating a rise of 2.9% from the prior quarter’s reported level. Our estimate for the metric is pegged at $118.5 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for card fees is pegged at $92.9 million, indicating a 3.3% rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure. We estimate the metric to be $98.1 million.

Management expects fee income in the third quarter to rise in the low single digits compared to the second quarter of 2025 reported level. Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $608.1 million, indicating a 1.3% sequential rise. Our estimate for the metric is pegged at $607.3 million.

Expenses: The opening of private banking offices, franchise expansion nationally and investments in newer technological advancements are likely to have increased CFG’s expenses in the third quarter.

Management projects third-quarter 2025 adjusted non-interest expenses to rise in the range of 1%-1.5% compared with the second quarter of 2025 reported level.

Asset Quality: The company is likely to have set aside a huge amount of money for potential delinquent loans, given the expectations of higher for longer interest rates and the impacts of Trump’s tariffs on inflation.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-accrual loans is pegged at $1.57 billion, indicating a sequential rise of 3.3%. Our estimate for the non-accrual loans is pegged at $1.61 billion, suggesting an increase of 5.4% from the prior-quarter reported level.

What Our Model Unveils for CFG

Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for Citizen Financial this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is the case here, as you can see below.

Earnings ESP: Citizen Financial has an Earnings ESP of +0.09%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: CFG currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings of $1.02 per share has been unchanged in the past seven days. The figure indicates an increase of 29.1% from the year-ago reported figure. Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The consensus estimate for third-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $2.10 billion, indicating a rise of 10.2% from the year-ago reported figure.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some other bank stocks, which, according to our model, also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.

The Earnings ESP for Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. TCBI is +0.35% and it carries a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. TCBI is slated to report its third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 22. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Texas Capital Bancshares’ quarterly earnings has been unchanged, indicating a rise of 7.1% from the year-ago reported figure.

BOK Financial BOKF has an Earnings ESP of +4.76% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. BOKF is expected to release its third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 20.

Quarterly earnings estimates for BOK Financial have remained unchanged in the past seven days, indicating an increase of 4.8% from the year-ago reported figure.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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