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How to Find Strong Oils and Energy Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises

By Zacks Equity Research | October 13, 2025, 8:50 AM

Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Eni SpA?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Eni SpA (E) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.76 a share, just 11 days from its upcoming earnings release on October 24, 2025.

By taking the percentage difference between the $0.76 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.72 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Eni SpA has an Earnings ESP of +6.05%. Investors should also know that E is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

E is one of just a large database of Oils and Energy stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is BP (BP).

Slated to report earnings on November 4, 2025, BP holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $0.73 a share 22 days from its next quarterly update.

For BP, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.70 is +4.27%.

E and BP's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>

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Eni SpA (E): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
BP p.l.c. (BP): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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