AGNC Investment Set to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

AGNC Investment Corp. AGNC is slated to report third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 20, after market close.

The company’s second-quarter 2025 results were adversely impacted by a decline in tangible net book value per share and net interest spread. Nonetheless, a rise in average asset yield on the portfolio was positive.

AGNC Investment’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters, missed thrice, with an average negative surprise of 5.65%.

Earnings Surprise History

Let us check out how AGNC is expected to fare in terms of revenues and earnings this time around. 

In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for earnings has been unchanged at 38 cents per share. This indicates an 11.6% decline from the prior-year quarter. 

Estimates Revision Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net interest income (“NII”) is pegged at $270 million, whereas AGNC Investment reported negative NII of $64 million in the year-ago quarter.

Factors to Impact AGNC’s Q3 Performance

Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in September 2025, mortgage rates did not decrease significantly. In the third quarter, mortgage rates fluctuated, but they remained range-bound. As such, refinancing activities and origination volumes witnessed some improvement.

Amid this, a large part of AGNC Investment’s mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”) holdings is anticipated to have witnessed decent levels of constant prepayment rates. This is expected to have positively impacted AGNC’s net premium amortization in the third quarter, in turn, supporting growth in interest income and average asset yield. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for interest income is pegged at $903.5 million, indicating a rise of 19.5% from the year-ago reported figure.

Fixed income volatility has declined during the third quarter. This persistent downtrend in rate volatility is likely to have supported tighter mortgage spreads and stronger book value performance for AGNC during the quarter. Also, with the Fed rate cuts, banks and foreign investors have reemerged as marginal buyers of agency MBS, providing further demand support and potential book value upside for AGNC. These favorable factors are likely to have supported the company’s gain-on-sale margin during the third quarter.

What Our Model Unveils for AGNC Investment

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AGNC this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

AGNC Investment has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

AGNC’s Price Performance

AGNC Investment outperformed the industry in the third quarter of 2025 and underperformed its peers, Annaly Capital Management NLY and Arbor Realty Trust ABR.

Price Performance

Annaly is scheduled to announce quarterly numbers on Oct. 22, while Arbor Realty is expected to come out with its performance details on Nov. 7, 2025. 

Over the past week, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Annaly’s earnings has been unchanged at 72 cents per share. The consensus estimate for Arbor Realty’s third-quarter 2025 earnings has been unchanged at 28 cents per share. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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