Packaging Corp to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Packaging Corporation of America PKG is set to release third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 22, after the closing bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.26 billion, indicating 3.4% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.83 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG’s third-quarter earnings has been unchanged in the past 60 days. The estimate indicates year-over-year growth of 6.8%.

PKG’s Earnings Surprise History

Packaging Corp’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, the average surprise being 2.9%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for Packaging Corp

Our model predicts an earnings beat for PKG this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is precisely the case here, as you can see below.

You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Packaging Corp has an Earnings ESP of +0.35%.

Zacks Rank: PKG currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped PKG’s Q3 Performance

Packaging Corp closed its previously stated deal to purchase the containerboard business of Greif, Inc. in early September. The Greif containerboard business includes two containerboard mills with approximately 800,000 tons of production capacity, and eight sheet feeder and corrugated plants located across the United States. The acquisition is expected to be accretive to the company’s earnings immediately. This will likely have aided the Packaging segment in the to-be-reported quarter.

However, the segment is expected to bear the brunt of low volumes. Our model predicts the Packaging segment’s volume to fall 2.5% year over year. Nonetheless, the price and mix impacts for the Packaging segment are expected to be favorable at 5.1% for the quarter, per our model. 

The estimate for the segment’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.06 billion, suggesting growth of 2.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. Our model estimates the segment’s operating income at $340 million, indicating growth of 6.2% from the prior-year reported figure.

In the Paper segment, prices and mix are expected to have increased 2.1% year over year. We expect volume to dip 7.5% year over year. 

The estimate for the Paper segment’s revenues is pegged at $151 million for the September-end quarter, suggesting a dip of 5.4% from the year-ago reported figure. The estimate for the segment’s operating income is $38 million, indicating a 1.2% dip from the prior-year quarter’s actual.

Packaging Corp’s Stock Price Performance

Over the past year, PKG shares have lost 2.5% compared with the industry’s 34.6% fall.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies with the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

Hubbell Incorporated HUBB, slated to release third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 28, has an Earnings ESP of +0.12% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hubbell’s third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $5.00 per share, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 11.4%. Hubbell has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 2.3%.

Illinois Tool Works Inc. ITW, slated to release third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 24, has an Earnings ESP of +0.84% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Illinois Tool Works’ third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $2.69 per share, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 1.5%. ITW has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 2.3%.

Otis Worldwide Corporation OTIS, set to release third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 29, has an Earnings ESP of +0.02% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Otis Worldwide’s third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.00 per share, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 4.2%. Otis Worldwide has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 0.2%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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