Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Stanley Black & Decker?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.23 a share, just 18 days from its upcoming earnings release on November 4, 2025.
SWK has an Earnings ESP figure of +3.59%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.23 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.19. Stanley Black & Decker is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
SWK is part of a big group of Industrial Products stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Hubbell (HUBB) as well.
Slated to report earnings on October 28, 2025, Hubbell holds a #2 (Buy) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $5.00 a share 11 days from its next quarterly update.
Hubbell's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +0.12% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.99.
SWK and HUBB's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK): Free Stock Analysis Report Hubbell Inc (HUBB): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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