American Airlines to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025results on Oct. 23, before market open.

American Airlines has an encouraging earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 49.97%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for American Airlines this earnings season.

Factors Likely to Have Influenced AAL’s Q3 Performance

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s third-quarter 2025 loss has been widened from 25 cents per share to a loss of 27 cents in the past 60 days. The company reported earnings of 30 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate lies within the company provided guided range of a loss per share of 10-60 cents.

We expect geopolitical uncertainty, tariff-related pressures and persistent inflation to weigh on AAL’s operations. The ongoing economic uncertainties and the resultant reduction in consumer and corporate confidence are likely to have hurt the company’s prospects.

Escalated labor and airport costs are also likely to have been high, which would have hurt the company’s bottom-line performance in the September quarter. Despite costs on aircraft fuel decreasing year over year (down 1.6% in third-quarter 2025, per our model), AAL expects to continue experiencing increased cost pressure from the labor agreements and deals inked with the pilots. We expect operating costs to increase 3.5% in third-quarter 2025 from third-quarter 2024 actuals, led by the 6.8% rise in salaries and related costs.

AAL expects third-quarter 2025 cost per available seat miles (adjusted) to increase in the 2.5-4.5% range from third-quarter 2024 actuals.

For the third quarter of 2025, management expects total revenuesto be either down 2% or increase by up to 1% from year-ago levels. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s third-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $13.63 billion, indicating a 0.13% decline year over year. The downside is likely to have been partially offset by improving travel demand and lower fuel prices.

The southward movement of oil prices bodes well for the bottom-line growth of industry participants. This is because fuel expenses are a significant input cost for the aviation industry. Oil prices decreased 4.2% in the July-September 2025 period.

What Our Model Says About AAL

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for American Airlines this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

American Airlines has an Earnings ESP of -0.68% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Highlights of AAL’s Q2 Earnings

American Airlines’ second-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 4 cents from non-recurring items) of 95 cents per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 79 cents. In the year-ago quarter, the airline reported earnings per share of $1.09. Operating revenues of $14.4 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.29 billion and moved past the year-ago number.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Wabtec CorporationWAB has an Earnings ESP of +1.32% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. WAB is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 22. You can seethe complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Wabtec has an impressive earnings surprise track record, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters (missed the mark in the remaining quarter), with the average beat being 5.41%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WAB’s third-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 1.60% upward in the past 90 days.

Shares of Wabtec have gained 10.6% over the past year. WAB’s third-quarter 2025 earnings are expected to grow 13.50% year over year. 

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)has an Earnings ESP of +1.43% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. EXPD is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 earnings on Nov. 4.  

Expeditors has an impressive earnings surprise track record, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average beat being 15.30%.

Expeditors’ third-quarter 2025 earnings are expected to decline 14.11% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EXPD’s third-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised upward by 2.94% to $1.40 per share in the past 60 days.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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