Norfolk Southern to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Norfolk Southern Corporation NSCis scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 23, after market close.

Norfolk Southern has an encouraging earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters (missed the mark in the remaining quarter), delivering an average beat of 1.85%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for Norfolk Southern this earnings season.

Factors Likely to Have Influenced NSC’s Q3 Performance

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NSC’s third-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised downward by 4.50% in the past 60 days to $3.18 per share. Moreover, the consensus mark implies a 2.15% downside from the year-ago actual.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NSC’s third-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $3.09 billion, indicating 1.26% growth year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter Merchandise revenues is pegged at $1.95 billion, indicating a 4.9% upside from the year-ago reported figure, as well as above our estimate of $1.93 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter Intermodal revenues is pegged at $760 million, indicating a 0.4% decline from the year-ago reported figure and below our estimate of $767 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter Coal revenues is pegged at $390 million, indicating an 8.6% decline from the year-ago reported figure and below our estimate of $414.5 million.

E-commerce demand has been driving shipment volumes for Norfolk Southern and is likely to boost results. The company utilizes its Precision Scheduled Railroading operating plan to cut costs and improve service quality, ensuring efficient use of assets. NSC’s robust free cash flow generation also enables it to maintain steady, shareholder-friendly initiatives.

On the flip side, softness in the freight market and volumes is a negative for NSC and is likely to have hurt its performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Additionally, inflationary pressure, high interest rates, tariff-related uncertainties, weak freight demand and supply-chain disruptions also act as other headwinds for NSC’s prospects.

What Our Model Says About NSC

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Norfolk Southern this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Norfolk Southern has an Earnings ESP of -0.68% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.

Norfolk Southern Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Norfolk Southern Corporation price-eps-surprise | Norfolk Southern Corporation Quote

Highlights of NSC’s Q2 Earnings

NSC's second-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 12 cents from non-recurring items) of $3.29 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.27 and increased 7.5% year over year, owing to lower costs.

Railway operating revenues were $3.11 billion in the quarter under review, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.13 billion. The top line increased 2.2% year over year, driven by the 3% rise in overall volumes.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Wabtec CorporationWAB has an Earnings ESP of +1.32% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. WAB is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 22. You can seethe complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Wabtec has an impressive earnings surprise track record, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters (missed the mark in the remaining quarter), with the average beat being 5.41%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WAB’s third-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 1.60% upward in the past 90 days.

Shares of Wabtec have gained 10.6% over the past year. WAB’s third-quarter 2025 earnings are expected to grow 13.50% year over year. 

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) has an Earnings ESP of +1.43% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. EXPD is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 earnings on Nov. 4.  

Expeditors has an impressive earnings surprise track record, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average beat being 15.30%.

Expeditors’ third-quarter 2025 earnings are expected to decline 14.11% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EXPD’s third-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised upward by 2.94% to $1.40 per share in the past 60 days.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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