Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Intuitive Machines, Inc. on wallstreetbets subreddit by zer0_chance284. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on LUNR. Intuitive Machines, Inc.'s share was trading at $10.08 as of September 26th. LUNR’s trailing P/E was 9.20 according to Yahoo Finance.

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) has faced public scrutiny following its IM-1 and IM-2 lunar missions, often labeled as “failures,” though within the aerospace industry they are recognized as partial successes. IM-1 achieved the first U.S. soft landing since Apollo, returning data despite tipping, while IM-2 reached the lunar south pole, operated for 12–13 hours in challenging terrain, and successfully tested novel systems, distinguishing it from competitors like Firefly. Sentiment was further affected when Firefly’s Blue Ghost completed a 14-day near-side mission, but IM-2’s polar profile presented a more complex challenge.

The upcoming IM-3 mission targets a safer, well-lit near-side site, carrying NASA’s Lunar Vertex suite and CADRE multi-rover tech demo, and is expected to materially de-risk Intuitive Machines’ Nova-C platform while launching the first NSNS lunar data-relay satellite, unlocking revenue from early task orders. Beyond landers, LUNR is developing an orbital transfer vehicle under a $9.8M Phase Two contract and leads the Moon RACER team with a $30M Phase-1 feasibility award. NASA has also selected LUNR for potential 10-year, up-to-$4.82B IDIQ contracts to provide lunar communications and navigation infrastructure, with early task orders already funded.

Financially, the company reported $62.5M revenue (+14% q/q), $373.3M cash, $13.3M free cash flow, and a $272.3M backlog, projecting FY25 revenue of $250–300M and positive adjusted EBITDA by year-end. Key catalysts include the IM-3 mission, which could validate service pricing and generate recurring revenue, alongside potential Phase-2 wins for LTVS and NSNS contracts. While risks include execution challenges and competitive pressures, LUNR’s contract runway, cash position, and upcoming near-side mission make it a compelling investment with significant upside if IM-3 succeeds.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) by Steve Wagner in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s robust launch cadence, growing Space Systems segment, and $1.07 billion backlog. The stock has appreciated approximately by 125.54% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as RKLB leads in small launch. zer0_chance284 shares a similar perspective but emphasizes Intuitive Machines’ (LUNR) lunar mission milestones and contract runway.

Intuitive Machines, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 27 hedge fund portfolios held LUNR at the end of the second quarter which was 21 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of LUNR as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy NOW 

Disclosure: None.