Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Sable Offshore Corp. on Triple S Special Situations Investing’s Substack by TripleS Special Situations. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on SOC. Sable Offshore Corp.'s share was trading at $18.53 as of September 29th. SOC’s trailing and forward P/E were 47.20 and 8.51 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Sable Energy presents a compelling investment opportunity driven by its potential to bring 50,000+ barrels of oil per day back online, despite a complex regulatory and legal landscape. The easiest path to production involves Fire Marshal approval and relief from the Geck court injunction, both of which are near completion, allowing restart within roughly ten business days once approvals are granted. Hydrotesting is already complete, wells are reactivated, and storage tanks are full, making the remaining steps largely administrative.

The main risk is a delay past January, which would trigger California’s SB237 law and add significant permitting hurdles, potentially postponing production by a year. A more complex alternative involves deploying an FPSO vessel in federal waters, bypassing California’s regulatory authority entirely. While this route could take 12–24 months and require government involvement, modifications to the platform, and additional costs of $5–8 per barrel, it remains feasible under strong federal support and pro-drilling political conditions.

Meanwhile, much of the legal drama—including criminal charges, securities litigation, California Coastal Commission fines, and environmental lawsuits—represents standard delay tactics or jurisdictional overreach and does not materially affect the underlying oil production potential. Sable can operate under existing Exxon permits during ongoing permit transfer disputes, while financial pressure from a $625 million loan maturing in January 2026 creates an urgent incentive for production restart or refinancing.

Overall, whether via the straightforward or more complex pathway, production restart unlocks significant value. For investors comfortable navigating regulatory complexity and political volatility, Sable offers substantial upside, with legal and political proceedings largely serving as a distraction rather than a fundamental barrier to oil-in-the-ground economics.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) by Welfare Capital Research in May 2025, which highlighted the production restart at Platform Harmony, onshore pipeline hydrotests, and CEO alignment in the equity raise. The company's stock price has depreciated approximately by 42.27% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as production and regulatory approvals continue to unlock value. TripleS Special Situations shares a similar thesis but emphasizes legal and regulatory pathways, including Fire Marshal approval, Geck injunction relief, and potential FPSO deployment.

Sable Offshore Corp. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 32 hedge fund portfolios held SOC at the end of the second quarter which was 29 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of SOC as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.