Coupang, Inc. (CPNG): A Bull Case Theory

 We came across a bullish thesis on Coupang, Inc. on Speedwell Memos’s Substack by Speedwell Research. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CPNG. Coupang, Inc.'s share was trading at $32.83 as of September 29th. CPNG’s trailing and forward P/E were 160.95 and 76.92 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Coupang delivered a solid 2Q25 with net revenues up 16% y/y (+19% FXN) and gross profit growth of 20% y/y (+22% FXN), reflecting a mix shift toward higher margin 3P sales. Product Commerce remained the engine, with gross profits up 23% to $2.4bn and adjusted EBITDA of $633mn at a 9% margin, already near the company’s long-term 10%+ target. Active customers rose 10% y/y to 23.9mn, highlighting Coupang’s penetration into a market of ~23mn households.

While Developing Offerings continued to post losses of $235mn, revenues advanced 33% y/y to $1.2bn, with Taiwan emerging as a clear bright spot, posting 54% q/q growth and triple-digit y/y gains. Unlike its Japan entry, Coupang is quickly achieving product-market fit in Taiwan, prompting management to allocate more resources, even as full-year losses in the segment are guided at $900–950mn.

Customer activity continues to deepen, driven by selection expansion—Rocket added over half a million items this quarter—and fulfillment strength. Fresh grocery growth underscored how improved service levels spur adoption, while FLC volumes grew several times faster than overall commerce. Bom Kim emphasized the company’s long-term runway, with only ~10% penetration of South Korea’s retail TAM. Longer-term margin expansion could come from advertising, which remains under-monetized, and procurement efficiencies as scale builds, though some former employees have expressed skepticism on Coupang’s ability to automate processes.

While free cash flow was pressured by higher capex and working capital dynamics, Coupang remains on a multi-decade journey to compound scale and margins. The Taiwan business represents the first credible path to TAM expansion beyond Korea, and the company’s continued execution in core commerce, coupled with optionality in cloud and AI infrastructure, keeps the investment case intact.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Coupang, Inc. (CPNG) by Brian Coughlin in April 2025, which highlighted the company’s logistics network, Rocket WOW adoption, and expansion into Taiwan and luxury retail. The company's stock price has appreciated approximately by 53% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as Coupang’s long-term growth remains intact. Speedwell Research shares a similar thesis but emphasizes 2Q25 execution, Taiwan growth, and Developing Offerings performance.

Coupang, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 82 hedge fund portfolios held CPNG at the end of the second quarter which was 80 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of CPNG as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.