Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Nebius Group N.V. on Emil Hartela Investing’s Substack by  Emil. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on NBIS. Nebius Group N.V.'s share was trading at $117.70 as of October 7th. NBIS’s trailing and forward P/E were 163.47 according to Yahoo Finance.

Nebius Group (NBIS), a spin-off from Yandex, has emerged as a key player in AI infrastructure, offering full-stack solutions that integrate land acquisition, power, data center construction, GPU deployment, software layers, and operational support. The company rents out computing power for AI model training and inference, primarily using Nvidia GPUs, enabling customers to deploy existing tools with minimal integration risk.

Its credibility was validated through a landmark agreement with Microsoft, demonstrating real demand and supporting a funding cycle that fuels further expansion. Nebius’s approach combines differentiated talent from ex-Yandex engineers, tight control of the full-stack infrastructure, and marquee contracts that anchor future growth, creating a reflexive loop: investor belief enables capacity expansion, which attracts top-tier customers, validates the business, and reinforces market confidence.

The core AI infrastructure segment is projected to deliver 20–30% free cash flow margins with GPU payback periods under 2.5 years, underpinning a compelling risk-adjusted return even with some dilution from capital raises. While smaller units like Avride, ClickHouse, and data labeling support the ecosystem, the primary equity value lies in the AI infrastructure engine. Long-term demand for training and inference is expected to grow exponentially, driven by AI adoption across cognitive and repetitive tasks, with constraints largely tied to power availability rather than market interest.

Risks include technology shifts, execution challenges, platform dependency, competition, and capital market volatility. The author values Nebius at approximately $30 billion today, up from $15 billion earlier in 2025, with upside to $40–50 billion if additional large-scale contracts materialize. Despite risks, NBIS presents a compelling investment, offering a combination of sector leadership, validated technology, funded growth, and significant upside potential.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) by Oliver | MMMT Wealth in April 2025, which highlighted the company’s GPU deployment plans, revenue growth, and undervaluation. The company's stock price has appreciated approximately 460% since our coverage as the market recognized execution and scale. Emil Hartela shares a similar bullish view but emphasizes full-stack AI infrastructure, Microsoft validation, and the funding–capacity–demand loop.

Nebius Group N.V. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 45 hedge fund portfolios held NBIS at the end of the second quarter which was 51 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of NBIS as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.