GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on GRAIL, Inc. on Value investing subreddit by BombasticBillionaire. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on GRAL. GRAIL, Inc.'s share was trading at $86.41 as of October 16th.

Grail (GRAL) is emerging as a leader in multi-cancer early detection (MCED) with its Galleri blood test, which leverages machine learning on DNA methylation patterns to detect signals from over 50 cancer types, including hard-to-screen cancers like pancreatic and ovarian. The company, originally acquired by Illumina for $8 billion in 2020, was spun off in June 2024 due to antitrust concerns, with Illumina retaining a 14.5% stake.

The spin-off began with approximately $930 million in cash, providing Grail roughly two years of operational runway. Galleri has already demonstrated promising results in the PATHFINDER study and is undergoing validation in two large-scale trials—the NHS-Galleri study with 140,000 participants and PATHFINDER II, which includes over 35,000 Medicare enrollees—expected to report key outcomes between 2025 and 2026.

Supporting its adoption, the VA’s REFLECTION study and TRICARE coverage for older, at-risk members reinforce the test’s clinical potential. If these trials confirm effectiveness and Medicare reimbursement follows, Galleri could achieve annual sales of $2–3 billion, representing a substantial upside relative to Grail’s current sub-$1 billion valuation.

While the opportunity is compelling, the stock remains a high-risk, binary biotech play contingent on clinical and regulatory validation. Investors are positioned for significant potential gains if Grail successfully transitions from promising trials to broad clinical adoption, with Medicare coverage serving as a pivotal catalyst to unlock value.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL) by mike-some in April 2025, which highlighted its leadership in multi-cancer early detection, promising trial results, and potential Medicare-driven $2.25 billion sales. The company's stock price has appreciated approximately by 233% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as trials progress. BombasticBillionaire shares a similar thesis but emphasizes updated cash runway, larger trial sizes, and $2–3 billion potential sales.

GRAIL, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 28 hedge fund portfolios held GRAL at the end of the second quarter which was 25 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of GRAL as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.