Will Lower Patient Days Affect Tenet Healthcare's Q3 Earnings?

Hospital company Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC is set to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 28, 2025, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $3.33 per shareon revenues of $5.24 billion. 

The third-quarter earnings estimate remained stable over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year increase of 13.7%. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 2.2%.

For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tenet Healthcare’s revenues is pegged at $21.16 billion, implying a rise of 2.4% year over year. The consensus mark for 2025 earnings per share is pegged at $15.82, indicating a jump of 33.2% on a year-over-year basis.

Tenet Healthcare beat the consensus estimate for earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 31.2%, as you can see below.

Tenet Healthcare Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Tenet Healthcare Corporation price-eps-surprise | Tenet Healthcare Corporation Quote

Q3 Earnings Whispers for THC

However, our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

THC has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

What’s Shaping THC’s Q3 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for adjusted patient admissions in total hospital operations suggests 2.7% year-over-year growth. However, on the same hospital basis, the consensus estimate for adjusted patient admissions indicates a 5.7% decrease from a year ago.

Meanwhile, the Ambulatory Care business is likely to have gained from better patient volumes, new service line growth and buyouts. Our model estimate for the Ambulatory Care segment’s operating revenues suggests 8.5% growth from the prior-year quarter’s figure, whereas the consensus estimate indicates a 10.7% increase. Higher patient service revenues are likely to have provided a boost in the third quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for adjusted EBITDA from Ambulatory Care operations suggests 7.9% year-over-year growth.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hospital Operations and Services revenues for the third quarter is pegged at $3.99 billion, indicating a 0.2% increase from the year-ago period. The consensus mark for net patient revenues per adjusted admission in the same hospital in the third quarter signals a 4.2% year-over-year increase.

The above-mentioned factors are likely to have benefited THC’s results in the quarter under review, positioning its profits for year-over-year growth. However, both the consensus estimate and our model estimate suggest that third-quarter total hospital patient days have decreased 4.4% year over year.

Both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for the average length of stay in total hospital indicate an 8.8% decrease from a year ago. Also, with increased utilization, costs are expected to have increased in the third quarter, making an earnings beat uncertain.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Tenet Healthcare, here are some companies from the broader Medical space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

Select Medical Holdings Corporation SEM has an Earnings ESP of +8.58% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Select Medical’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter of 18 cents per share has witnessed one upward revision against no downward movement over the past month. The consensus mark for Select Medical’s revenues is pegged at $1.32 billion.

Erasca, Inc. ERAS has an Earnings ESP of +5.66% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Erasca’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter remained stable over the past week. Erasca’s earnings beat estimates in three of the past four quarters and met once, with an average surprise of 13%.

Envista Holdings Corporation NVST has an Earnings ESP of +1.62% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Envista’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates 125% year-over-year growth. NVST’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 16.5%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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