Why American Airlines (AAL) Stock Is Up Today

What Happened?

Shares of global airline American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) jumped 5.9% in the afternoon session after the company reported decent third quarter results and raised its full-year profit forecast. 

For the third quarter, the airline's revenue was flat year-over-year at $13.69 billion, which met Wall Street's expectations. However, its adjusted loss of $0.17 per share was significantly better than analysts' consensus estimates for a loss of $0.28 per share. The main catalyst for the stock's rise was the company's improved outlook. Management raised its full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance to a midpoint of $0.80, representing a 60% increase. This optimistic profit forecast signaled to investors that the company's performance was improving, outweighing concerns over flat revenue for the quarter.

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What Is The Market Telling Us

American Airlines’s shares are quite volatile and have had 19 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 7 months ago when the stock gained 18.9% on the news that markets rallied sharply on news that President Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause. 

Reciprocal tariffs were also dropped to 10% for most countries, sparking renewed optimism amid ongoing trade talks. The major stock indices rose as investors, growing impatient of seemingly irrational tariff actions, welcomed the pause as a sign of a more measured path forward. However, Trump was quick to note that China was not part of the pause. Instead, he prepared to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 125% after China announced retaliatory tariffs on US imports. This tough stance on China stood in sharp contrast to the softer tone toward others. In a week marked by growing uncertainty, this news eased some of the pressure. The questions remain whether we are out of the woods and can sustain the rally or not.

American Airlines is down 25.3% since the beginning of the year, and at $12.71 per share, it is trading 31.9% below its 52-week high of $18.66 from January 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of American Airlines’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,008.

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