MSM Q3 Deep Dive: Core Customer Growth and Tariff Pressures Shape Results

Industrial supplies company MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE:MSM) announced better-than-expected revenue in Q3 CY2025, with sales up 2.7% year on year to $978.2 million. Its non-GAAP profit of $1.09 per share was 6.3% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

Is now the time to buy MSM? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

StockStory’s Take

MSC Industrial’s third quarter results drew a moderately positive response from the market, reflecting management’s progress on key growth initiatives. CEO Erik Gershwind highlighted that “the return to growth in our core customer base, along with continued strength in the public sector, resulted in better-than-expected volumes.” The company attributed improved sales trends to the successful execution of initiatives like upgraded web pricing, enhanced e-commerce experiences, and targeted marketing programs. However, management also called out the impact of rapid tariff-driven purchase cost escalation, which compressed gross margins more than expected during the quarter.

Looking ahead, management’s guidance is influenced by ongoing inflationary pressures, further investments in digital and marketing capabilities, and new leadership focused on operational improvement. Incoming CEO Martina McIsaac emphasized the importance of “executing on our recent organizational changes to drive disciplined sales excellence and a relentless commitment to customer experience.” While management expects margin restoration as pricing actions take hold and productivity initiatives ramp up, they warned that uncertainties tied to tariffs and supplier cost increases could continue to affect results. McIsaac noted that “our intention is obviously to meet the inflation as it comes,” underscoring the unpredictable nature of future cost trends.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management credited the quarter’s sales growth to improved execution with core customers, expansion of high-touch solutions, and stabilization in key end markets, while also addressing gross margin headwinds driven by tariffs and supplier cost increases.

• Core customer turnaround: MSC Industrial saw a return to positive sales growth among its core customer base, which management attributed to completed web pricing realignment, upgraded website functionality, targeted marketing, and optimized seller coverage. These efforts resulted in a steady improvement in core customer performance over recent months.
• High-touch solutions momentum: The company’s vending and implant programs continued to expand, with installed vending machines up 10% year-over-year and implant programs rising 20%. These high-touch solutions now account for nearly 40% of total company sales, reinforcing MSC’s differentiated value proposition.
• Tariff and supplier cost escalation: Gross margin was pressured by unusually rapid supplier cost increases, driven by tariffs on China-sourced goods and certain raw materials like steel and tungsten. Management described this inflation as “faster and hotter than expected,” resulting in a 60 basis point decline in gross margin compared to last year.
• Public sector strength and volatility: Public sector sales continued to grow at a robust pace, but management cautioned that the ongoing government shutdown has caused recent volatility—sales turned negative in October after double-digit growth in September. Leadership expects this to be temporary, with growth likely to resume once the shutdown ends.
• Organizational changes: The company announced key leadership transitions, including Martina McIsaac’s appointment as CEO and new roles focused on sales excellence and customer experience. These changes are intended to drive further operational discipline and growth.

Drivers of Future Performance

MSC Industrial’s outlook is shaped by inflationary risks, ongoing productivity initiatives, and continued investment in digital and marketing capabilities.

• Tariffs and supplier cost pressures: Management warned that persistent tariff-related inflation and raw material cost increases could necessitate further price adjustments. While customers have so far accepted these increases, sustained cost escalation may pressure gross margins and require ongoing vigilance in pricing strategies.
• Productivity and margin restoration: The company expects its pipeline of supply chain and sales productivity initiatives to support incremental operating margins in the “teens” in the near term, with the potential to build further as gross margin stabilizes and expense growth moderates. Management indicated that leveraging the cost structure remains a key lever for profit improvement.
• Digital and marketing investments: Increased spending on digital upgrades and targeted marketing is expected to continue, especially as recent investments have generated measurable improvements in core customer growth. Management plans to dynamically adjust marketing budgets based on observed returns, which could influence both revenue growth and operating expense trends moving forward.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) the trajectory of gross margin recovery as pricing actions and supply chain productivity initiatives play out, (2) the pace of improvement in core customer sales and ongoing adoption of high-touch solutions like vending and implants, and (3) the impact of further tariff-related cost increases on both margins and customer pricing. We will also closely watch execution on digital and marketing investments as indicators of sustainable growth.

MSC Industrial currently trades at $89.73, up from $87.04 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

Stocks That Trumped Tariffs

Donald Trump’s April 2025 "Liberation Day" tariffs sent markets into a tailspin, but stocks have since rebounded strongly, proving that knee-jerk reactions often create the best buying opportunities.

The smart money is already positioning for the next leg up. Don’t miss out on the recovery - check out our Top 9 Market-Beating Stocks. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025).

Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Comfort Systems (+782% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.

StockStory is growing and hiring equity analyst and marketing roles. Are you a 0 to 1 builder passionate about the markets and AI? See the open roles here.