Builders FirstSource Set to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store?

Builders FirstSource, Inc. BLDR is slated to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 30, before market open.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.3%, but net sales marginally missed the same by 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, both top and bottom lines tumbled 5% and 32%, respectively.

BLDR’s earnings topped the consensus mark in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on the remaining occasion, the average surprise being 1.11%.

Trend in BLDR’s Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Builders FirstSource’s third-quarter EPS has moved south to $1.69 from $1.71 in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 45% year-over-year decline from EPS of $3.07 reported in the year-ago quarter.

Builders FirstSource, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Builders FirstSource, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Builders FirstSource, Inc. Quote

The consensus estimate for net sales is pegged at $3.80 billion, indicating a decline of 10.3% from $4.23 billion reported in the year-ago quarter.

Factors to Shape Builders FirstSource’s Q3 Results

Net Sales

Builders FirstSource’s net sales are expected to have declined year over year in the third quarter of 2025 due to softness and uncertainty surrounding the housing market. The affordability concerns due to a still high mortgage rate and persistent sticky inflation are marring the housing start trends, which have been directly affecting the company’s sales volume. Also, the declining trends in the multi-family and single-family customer segments are likely to have added to the downtrend during the third quarter.

Furthermore, the value-added product category of BLDR, which includes manufactured products and windows, doors & millwork, is likely to have been adversely impacted by the ongoing market headwinds.

For the third quarter, the company expects net sales between $3.65 billion and $3.95 billion, down from $4.23 billion reported in the year-ago quarter.

That said, BLDR’s focus on strategic acquisitions, digital solutions and productivity, as well as investments in innovative and value-added products, is likely to have backed its quarterly performance to some extent.

Earnings

The bottom line of Builders FirstSource is likely to have declined year over year due to ongoing single-family and multi-family margin normalization alongside a below-normal housing starts environment. Moreover, reduced operating leverage and continued pressure in commodity product categories despite cost-saving efforts are expected to have pressured the margins in the third quarter.

For the to-be-reported quarter, BLDR expects adjusted EBITDA in the range of $375-$425 million, down from $626.5 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

What the Zacks Model Predicts for BLDR

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Builders FirstSource this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, this is not the case here, as you will see below.

BLDR’s Earnings ESP: BLDR has an Earnings ESP of -2.73%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank of BLDR: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell).

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies in the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the respective quarters to be reported.

Dutch Bros Inc. BROS currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.93% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Dutch Bros’ earnings are expected to increase 6.3%. Dutch Bros’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 91.9%.

Brinker International, Inc. EAT currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.28% and a Zacks Rank of 3. 

In the to-be-reported quarter, Brinker’s earnings are expected to register an 85.3% year-over-year surge. Brinker's earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 25.7%.

Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI has an Earnings ESP of +4.64% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Darden’s earnings are expected to register a 3.5% year-over-year increase. Darden’s earnings beat estimates in one of the trailing four quarters and missed thrice, with an average miss of 0.54%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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