Par Pacific Set to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store?

Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) is set to release third-quarter results on Nov. 4. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is earnings of $2.21 per share on revenues of $1.9 billion.

Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the integrated downstream operator’s results in the September quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at PARR’s previous-quarter performance first.

Highlights of Q2 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, the Houston, TX-based energy company beat the consensus mark, backed by impressive refining segment results. PARR had reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.54, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 74 cents. Revenues of $1.9 billion also came in 17.2% above the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Par Pacific beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters, and missed in the other. This is depicted in the graph below:

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Quote

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third-quarter bottom line has been revised 33.9% upward in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 2,310% surge year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, however, suggests a 10.9% decrease from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider

Par Pacific’s refining business continues to be its strongest profit driver. In the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved a record throughput of 88,000 barrels per day at its Hawaii refinery, supported by steady operations and a low production cost of $4.18 per barrel. Overall, the Refining segment’s adjusted EBITDA surged to $108.4 million from a loss of $14 million in Q1.

Margin capture in Hawaii reached 125%, demonstrating strong execution and yield optimization. With the company guiding system-wide throughput of up to 205,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, refining margins might have remained a key upward catalyst for earnings. Consequently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PARR’s third-quarter refining income is pegged at $133 million, implying a significant improvement from $20.1 million earned in the year-ago period.

But on a bearish note, margin pressure and cost headwinds in the Logistics unit might have played spoilsport. The segment delivered around $30 million in adjusted EBITDA during the second quarter, but this mostly represents a steady, mid-cycle performance with little growth momentum. Logistics volumes in Wyoming only began to improve after the refinery restart in April, and results still depend on seasonal demand trends. Higher maintenance costs, including a $4 million crude heater outage in Wyoming, also underline ongoing operational challenges. Any dip in refinery activity or regional fuel demand could pressure margins and limit the segment’s overall cash flow contribution. As per the Zacks Consensus Estimate, the segment’s adjusted EBITDA is expected to show a 11.4% decline over the third quarter of 2024 to $29.2 million.

What Does Our Model Say?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Par Pacific is likely to beat estimates in the third quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is -10.16%.

Zacks Rank: PARR currently carries a Zacks Rank of 1.

Stocks to Consider

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Par Pacific, here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) has an Earnings ESP of +1.55% and a Zacks Rank #1. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 6.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Canadian Natural beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other, with the average being 7.1%. Valued at around $65.7 billion, CNQ has lost 8.4% in a year.

Comstock Resources (CRK) has an Earnings ESP of +2.86% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings of Comstock Resources indicates 295.8% growth. Valued at more than $5 billion, CRK is up 49.7% in a year.

Diamondback Energy (FANG) has an Earnings ESP of +4.26% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 3.

Diamondback Energy beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other, with the average being 3.3%. Valued at around $41.8 billion, FANG has lost 20.1% in a year.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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