T. Rowe Price Q3 Earnings Coming Up: Here's What to Expect

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. TROW is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 31, before the opening bell. The company’s quarterly earnings are expected to have declined, while revenues are expected to have risen from the year-ago quarter’s reported level.

In the last reported quarter, TROW’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The company's results benefited from higher assets under management (AUM). On the other hand, lower investment advisory fees, higher expenses and negative capital allocation-based income were headwinds.

T. Rowe Price’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 3.72%.

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. Quote

Key Factors & Estimates for TROW in Q3

In the July-September quarter, the S&P 500 Index rose nearly 8%, indicating strong market performance.  The fixed-income markets saw positive flow trends, with solid returns across funds. Further, the equity markets' performance also improved during the quarter. As a result, TROW's performance for the September quarter is likely to have benefited from robust equity market returns and steady fixed-income inflows.

Amid the challenging operating environment, T. Rowe Price is likely to have continued to record net outflows in the third quarter. Per the company’s monthly metrics data, its net outflows were $7.9 billion for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025.

The company’s preliminary AUM of $1.77 trillion as of Sept. 30, 2025, increased 5.4% from June 30, 2025, due to an increase in the Equity market performance.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total AUM is pegged at $1.74 trillion, indicating a 3.6% sequential increase. Our estimate for the same is pinned at $1.68 trillion.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment advisory fees is pegged at $1.67 billion, suggesting an increase of 6.3% on a sequential basis. Our estimate for the same is pegged at $1.59 billion.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for administrative, distribution and servicing fees of $152.5 million implies an increase of 1.9% from the prior quarter’s actual. Our estimate for the metric is pegged at $146.6 million.

Coming to expenses, T. Rowe Price incurs significant expenditure to attract new investment advisory clients and additional investments from existing clients. Also, the company invests substantially in upgrading technology to align with changing customer needs. This is expected to have increased its expenses in the quarter to be reported. However, the company's cost management efforts are likely to have offset the rise to some extent.

Our estimate for operating expenses (GAAP basis) is pegged at $1.2 billion, indicating a 3.5% decrease on a sequential basis.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for TROW

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for TROW this time around. This is because the company does not have the right combination of the two key elements, a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold).

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: T. Rowe Price currently sports a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings has remained unchanged at $2.49 per share over the past seven days. However, the figure indicates a year-over-year decline of 3.1%.

The consensus estimate for revenues of $1.86 billion implies a 3.9% rise from the prior-year quarter’s actual.

Performance of TROW's Peers

Invesco’s IVZ third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 61 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 45 cents. The bottom line increased 38.6% from the prior-year quarter.

The results of Invesco were primarily aided by an increase in adjusted revenues. Moreover, growth in the AUM balance to record levels supported the results to an extent. However, an increase in adjusted operating expenses was a headwind.

SEI Investments Co.’s SEIC third-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $1.30 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.25. Moreover, the bottom line reflected a rise of 9.2% from the prior-year quarter.

SEIC’s results were aided by higher revenues and a rise in AUM. However, higher expenses acted as a spoilsport.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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