Ellington Financial Set to Report Q3 Results: What's in the Cards?

Ellington Financial Inc. EFC is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 5, after market close. 

In the last reported quarter, the results were affected by lower NII and other income. Also, the company registered a year-over-year decline in book value per share. However, the decrease in expenses acted as a tailwind.

Ellington has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 14.06%.

Ellington Financial Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Ellington Financial Inc. price-eps-surprise | Ellington Financial Inc. Quote

In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for earnings has been unchanged at 44 cents per share. The figure suggests 10% growth from the year-ago quarter.

Factors to Shape EFC’s Q3 Performance

Despite the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut in September 2025, mortgage rates did not decline significantly and remained largely range-bound through the third quarter. Consequently, refinancing activity and origination volumes are likely to have witnessed moderate improvement in the to-be-reported quarter.

Against this backdrop, a portion of Ellington Financial’s diversified investment portfolio, including residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (MBS), asset-backed securities and origination volume, is anticipated to have experienced slightly higher prepayment rates. This is likely to have positively impacted interest income and average asset yield in the third quarter.

Although mortgage spreads tightened in the third quarter, they remained wider than historical levels, exerting mild pressure on book value. However, easing rate volatility and improved demand for agency MBS might have stabilized Ellington’s tangible book value per share in the quarter to be reported.

What the Zacks Model Reveals for Ellington

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for EFC this time around. This is because the company has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher — for increasing the odds of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Ellington has an Earnings ESP of +1.15%.

Zacks Rank: EFC currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Performance & Upcoming Release Date of Other REITs

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. NLY reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings available for distribution per average share of 73 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 72 cents. The figure increased from 66 cents in the year-ago quarter.

NLY’s average yield on interest-earning assets improved in the reported quarter. However, the company recorded a year-over-year decline in book value per share.

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. STWD is expected to post third-quarter results on Nov. 10.

Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for STWD’s quarterly earnings has been revised upward to 49 cents per share over the past seven days. This indicates a rise of 2.1% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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