Analyst Explains Why He's Bearish on Alphabet (GOOGL), Sees 'Diminishing Returns' in Future

We recently published 10 Stocks Moving on Buzzing News as Analyst Issues Strong Warning About AI Valuations. Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is one of the stocks moving on buzzing news.

Theotrade‬’s Don Kaufman said earlier in October on Schwab Network that he’s bearish on Alphabet amid AI threats. He sees GOOG returns “diminishing” with time and mentioned an options trade to play it.

“I mean, where are they making their money? Is it AI? Right now, that AI hype trade is part of Alphabet Inc Class A (NASDAQ:GOOGL) 30% return on a year-to-date basis. The reality is, where are they actually making money? A lot of it has to do with Apple, a lot of it has to do with search, and those are going to bring diminishing returns in the near future. I’m bearish on Alphabet Inc Class A (NASDAQ:GOOGL), but this one I’m giving myself considerable time. I’m going out in the options marketplace all the way to January. This one for me is less about a technical trade—Rick is going to look at the technicals, which I would agree are actually strong. The fundamental basis behind the trade, though, is hype. It’s AI, and I don’t think that’s going to resonate with Google investors. Alphabet Inc Class A (NASDAQ:GOOGL) January 16th expiration—as I said, I’m giving it the gift of time, three months out. I’m going to buy the 230 puts and sell the 220 puts. It’s a $10-wide put spread done for a $2.90 debit. This is a trade that’s out of the money, it’s defined risk, and it’s looking for a fairly substantial break lower inside Alphabet over the next three months.”

Bristlemoon Global Fund stated the following regarding Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) in its third quarter 2025 investor letter:

“Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is another stock that we felt had been undeservedly beaten down by a bearish narrative that largely ignored the fundamentals of the business. We began accumulating GOOGL in June and continued adding to our position in Q3 as we waited for the market narrative to flip on its head. Alphabet needs no introduction, so we will jump straight into why we thought the AI disruption and terminal value fears were overblown.

Google failing to innovate? The notion that Google has lost the ability to innovate is a common refrain that we have heard over the past several years – essentially since the November 2022 ChatGPT moment – and one that we subscribed to ourselves at one stage. The genesis of this complaint is easy to understand: • Despite (or perhaps because of) being a tremendous monetary success, the Google Search experience has been degrading for years as sponsored links, shopping ads, algorithm changes and rampant SEO abuse made it increasingly tedious for users to find answers to their queries. • Google has nine services with over 1 billion users each, yet these are all over one or two decades old, and the company has failed to launch a new service or product with massive adoption in recent years despite its distribution advantages. At least Mark Zuckerberg has the distinction of copying well…” (Click here to read the full text)

While we acknowledge the potential of GOOGL as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy Right Now.

Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.