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So far in 2025, the construction sector in the United States has been through a roller coaster ride, with public infrastructure reaching heights and residential construction navigating a choppy environment. The demand for new public infrastructure projects, alongside refurbishments of existing infrastructure, has ramped up most expectedly because of several federal and state funding initiatives, alongside increasing awareness about sustainability. Contrarily, the ongoing affordability challenges and weak consumer confidence are likely to have kept the housing market under pressure during the to-be-reported quarter. Per Freddie Mac, the 30-year mortgage rate lingered between 6.7% and 6.3% (during the July-September 2025 period).
While discussing the sector’s performance during the third quarter, investors can pay attention to four stocks, including Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. MLM, TopBuild Corp. BLD, Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation GLDD and Trex Company, Inc. TREX, as they are set to report their third-quarter 2025 earnings tomorrow. The earnings expectations of this diversified bundle of stocks represent the broader sector’s performance to a reasonable extent.
Considering a broader view of the Construction sector, per the latest Earnings Trends report (as of Oct. 29), 50% of the sector’s companies out of the reported 222 S&P 500 members had released their earnings. Having the sector’s market capitalization of 40.8%, these companies, in total, reported a 24.8% decline in the bottom line, with the top line tumbling 3.6%. Of the companies that have reported, 50% beat on earnings, while 37.5% topped the revenue estimates.
Per the recent Earnings Trends report, the construction sector’s earnings are expected to tumble 14.1% year over year in the third quarter of 2025 compared with a 10.4% decline in the prior quarter. Revenues are anticipated to grow 1.5% against a decline of 2.5% in the second quarter of 2025.
The United States is witnessing a boost from increased infrastructure spending through several initiatives, including the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). These governmental initiatives are proving incremental for companies engaging in public construction and engineering projects, resulting in a growing backlog. Continued strength in environmental remediation, national security and nuclear fuel markets is adding to the uptrend.
The public spending environment is likely to have been favorable for firms indulging in these businesses or related activities, namely Martin Marietta and Great Lakes Dredge & Dock.
Apart from the external factors, various company-specific capabilities, including strategic inorganic activities, efficient service delivery, ensuring operational efficiencies through cost-cutting efforts, product diversification and the efforts of tapping into untouched markets are likely to have been boding well. Under the broader construction sector, these in-house efforts are expected to have enabled the firms to develop distinctive competencies and navigate through the ongoing uncertainties.
The uncertainties surrounding the homebuilding market not only affect the homebuilders but also the related companies, whose sales and growth directly depend on housing starts, along with repair and remodeling activities. As mentioned above, the revenues of firms like TopBuild and Trex Company depend primarily on the movements of the housing market.
With this uncertainty and the underlying macro uncertainties, the construction sector is likely to have witnessed a downturn in its quarterly expectations.
Amid a bundle of stocks, to identify one with the potential to beat earnings estimates, the following Zacks methodology can be exercised. The Zacks model suggests that a company needs to have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 stocks here.
Here are four stocks that are set to report their third-quarter 2025 earnings on Nov. 4.
Martin Marietta: This producer and supplier of construction aggregates and other heavy building materials has an Earnings ESP of +0.26% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company has reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on the remaining two occasions, the average negative surprise being 0.9%.
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. Quote
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Martin Marietta’s third-quarter 2025 revenues and earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $2.05 billion and $6.65, indicating growth of 8.5% and 12.5%, respectively, from the year-ago figures. (read more: Martin Marietta to Report Q3 Earnings: What to Expect This Season?)
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock: This Texas-based dredging contractor has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company reported better-than-expected earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on the remaining one occasion, the average surprise being 45.3%.
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation price-eps-surprise | Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation Quote
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Great Lakes Dredge & Dock’s third-quarter 2025 revenues and EPS is pegged at $197.6 million and 17 cents, implying growth of 3.4% and 30.8%, respectively, from the year-ago figures. (read more: Here's What to Know Ahead of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock's Q3 Earnings)
TopBuild: This Florida-based installer and distributor of insulation and other building products has an Earnings ESP of +2.49% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 2.8%.
TopBuild Corp. price-eps-surprise | TopBuild Corp. Quote
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TopBuild’s third-quarter 2025 revenues and EPS is pegged at $1.38 billion and $5.22, indicating growth of 0.8% and a decline of 8.1%, respectively, from the year-ago figures.
Trex: This composite decking and railing products manufacturer has an Earnings ESP of -1.69% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). The company reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 25.5%.
Trex Company, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Trex Company, Inc. Quote
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trex’s third-quarter 2025 revenues and EPS is pegged at $302.4 million and 56 cents, representing growth of 29.4% and 51.4%, respectively, from the year-ago figures.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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