Johnson Controls Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: What to Expect?

Johnson Controls International plc JCI is scheduled to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 (ended September 2025) financial numbers on Nov. 5, before market open.

The company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters. The average surprise was 4.9%. In the last reported quarter, its earnings of $1.05 per share beat the consensus estimate of $1 by 5%.

The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $6.3 billion, indicating an increase of 1.2% from the year-ago quarter’s figure. The consensus estimate for adjusted earnings is pinned at $1.20 per share, indicating a decrease of 6.3% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Key Factors and Estimates to Note Ahead of JCI’s Earnings Release

The Americas segment is expected to have benefited from heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) platforms in data centers and strength in controls businesses. Our estimate for the segment’s revenues is pegged at $4.3 billion, indicating a 0.8% increase from the year-ago figure.

The Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) segment is expected to have benefited from strength in service, fire and security, and applied HVAC businesses. Our estimate for the segment’s revenues is pegged at $1.26 billion, indicating a 7% increase from the year-ago figure.

Solid momentum in the service business and strength in the products and systems business are expected to have driven the performance of the Asia Pacific segment. We expect revenues from the segment to increase 1.4% year over year to $814.6 million.

Investments in digital offerings, like the OpenBlue platform that plays an integral part in meeting customer needs, are expected to have driven the company’s revenues.

However, the escalating selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses pose a threat to Johnson Controls’ bottom line. High organizational realignment and transaction/separation costs are expected to have pushed up the SG&A expenses, which are likely to have impacted its margins in the fiscal fourth quarter.

JCI has considerable exposure to overseas markets. Given the company’s substantial international operations, foreign currency headwinds are likely to have marred its profitability.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for JCI this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here, as elaborated below. 

Earnings ESP: JCI has an Earnings ESP of +1.94% as the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $1.22 per share, which is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.20. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: JCI currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Performance of Other Companies

Dover Corporation DOV reported earnings of $2.62 per share in third-quarter 2025, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.50. This compares with earnings of $2.27 per share a year ago.

Dover posted revenues of $2.08 billion in the quarter, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.6%. This compares with year-ago revenues of $1.98 billion.

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. AMBP came out with earnings of eight cents per share in the third quarter of 2025, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of seven cents. This compares with earnings of eight cents per share a year ago.

Ardagh Metal posted revenues of $1.43 billion in the quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.7%. This compares with year-ago revenues of $1.31 billion. 

Packaging Corporation of America PKG reported earnings of $2.73 per share in the third quarter, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.83. This compares with earnings of $2.65 per share a year ago.

Packaging Corp. posted revenues of $2.31 billion in the quarter, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.2%. This compares with year-ago revenues of $2.18 billion.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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