BALL Q3 Deep Dive: Solid Beverage Can Volumes and Operational Gains Drive Margin Expansion

Packaging manufacturer Ball (NYSE:BLL) reported revenue ahead of Wall Streets expectations in Q3 CY2025, with sales up 9.6% year on year to $3.38 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $1.02 per share was in line with analysts’ consensus estimates.

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StockStory’s Take

Ball’s third quarter results were met with a positive market response, reflecting the company’s ability to deliver both revenue growth and margin improvement amid external pressures. Management attributed performance to strong beverage can volume growth across all regions and ongoing cost discipline. CEO Daniel Fisher noted the company’s “continued customer and pack size mix shift toward lower-margin categories,” but emphasized that strategic alignment with fast-growing beverage brands supported overall profitability. Operational efficiency initiatives and robust demand in energy drinks and nonalcoholic beverages played a central role in driving results.

Looking ahead, Ball’s outlook is influenced by expectations for continued global volume growth, expansion of production capacity, and careful navigation of tariff and market uncertainties. Management is focused on further portfolio optimization and operational improvements, with Fisher stating, “We remain vigilant in monitoring the evolving geopolitical landscape and tariff developments, and we are actively managing these dynamics to protect our business and support long-term growth.” The company also anticipates a step-up in supply chain efficiency as new facilities come online, aiming to sustain double-digit EPS growth into next year.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management cited beverage can volume growth, regional execution, and operational improvements as primary drivers for the quarter, while actively navigating tariffs and product mix challenges.

• North America mix shift: The company saw strong mid-single-digit volume growth in North America, led by energy drinks and nonalcoholic beverages, but faced operating leverage below historical norms due to a deliberate shift toward lower-margin categories and evolving customer preferences.
• Tariff and cost navigation: Ball passed through 25–30% price increases to customers in North America to address Section 232 aluminum tariffs, with management highlighting ongoing efforts to mitigate these cost pressures and maintain profitability.
• European momentum: The EMEA region delivered robust mid-single-digit volume growth and double-digit operating earnings gains, supported by increasing demand for aluminum packaging and Ball’s ability to capture market share from glass packaging, which management noted has a higher carbon footprint.
• South American resilience: Despite some weather-related softness in Brazil, the South American business maintained mid-single-digit volume growth, with Argentina driving segment performance and a recovery in Brazil expected in the coming quarter.
• Capacity and supply chain investments: Investments in new production facilities, such as the Millersburg, Oregon plant, are designed to unlock additional capacity and improve supply chain efficiency, positioning Ball for improved margins and volume growth as these projects are completed.

Drivers of Future Performance

Ball’s forward outlook is shaped by expectations for continued global can volume growth, operational efficiency programs, and the impact of tariffs and market dynamics on pricing and margins.

• Capacity expansion and efficiency: The upcoming Millersburg, Oregon facility is expected to add production capacity, reduce supply chain costs, and improve operating leverage beginning in the second half of next year, with management targeting further margin improvement in subsequent years.
• Tariff management and pricing: Management remains focused on effectively passing through tariff-related price increases and optimizing the product portfolio to maintain profitability, while monitoring potential regulatory changes that could influence future cost structures.
• Customer and category mix evolution: Ball is prioritizing alignment with high-growth beverage categories and strategic customers, anticipating incremental volume from smaller can formats and innovations in energy and nonalcoholic drinks, which are expected to offset potential declines in other segments.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be tracking (1) the start-up and ramp of the Millersburg, Oregon facility and its effect on supply chain efficiency, (2) execution of tariff pass-through strategies and stability in input costs, and (3) continued growth in energy and nonalcoholic beverage can volumes. Successful management of these factors, along with progress in European and South American market share gains, will be critical markers of execution.

Ball currently trades at $47.72, up from $47.10 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

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