LINC Q3 Deep Dive: Campus Expansion and Skilled Trades Demand Power Results

Education company Lincoln Educational (NASDAQ:LINC) reported Q3 CY2025 results exceeding the market’s revenue expectations, with sales up 23.6% year on year to $141.4 million. The company’s full-year revenue guidance of $507.5 million at the midpoint came in 2.8% above analysts’ estimates. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.20 per share was 68.7% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

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StockStory’s Take

Lincoln Educational delivered third quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, prompting a significant positive reaction from the market. Management credited the outperformance to higher student enrollment, robust demand for skilled trade programs, and operational efficiencies achieved through its hybrid teaching platform. CEO Scott Shaw pointed to growth from new and expanded campuses, such as East Point, Nashville, Levittown, and Houston, as critical contributors. He stated, “Our growth has accelerated due to the nation’s increased interest in skilled trade careers and through our successful development of greenfield campuses and the expansion of successful programs to existing campuses.”

Looking forward, Lincoln Educational’s raised guidance reflects management’s confidence in continued enrollment momentum, new campus openings, and further program expansion. Management emphasized upcoming launches in Texas and New York, as well as plans to expand licensed practical nursing and introduce registered nurse programs. CFO Brian Meyers indicated that operating leverage from the Lincoln 10.0 teaching model and ongoing efficiency initiatives are expected to support increasing profitability. Shaw noted, “We believe we will comfortably surpass the objectives established last year...and are increasing our targets.”

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management attributed quarterly outperformance to strong enrollment in skilled trades, new campus launches, and operational improvements from the Lincoln 10.0 hybrid model.

• Skilled trades enrollment strength: Management reported double-digit growth in student starts for transportation and skilled trade programs, driven by strong demand and the successful rollout of new and replicated programs across campuses.
• New campus and expansion impact: The recent opening of campuses in East Point, Houston, Nashville, and Levittown outperformed expectations, with expansions providing additional capacity and accelerating enrollment growth beyond initial projections.
• Hybrid teaching model efficiencies: The Lincoln 10.0 hybrid platform has improved instructional and space efficiency, contributing to lower instructional costs as a percentage of revenue and supporting margin stability despite a larger student base.
• Healthcare program rationalization: The company continued to exit lower-demand healthcare and professional programs, focusing resources on core licensed practical nursing and medical assistant offerings, which returned to growth and set the stage for future expansion into registered nurse degrees.
• High school outreach progress: The high school share program and expanded outreach efforts have doubled high school enrollments at certain campuses, with management noting increased interest from school districts and optimism for further growth from this demographic segment.

Drivers of Future Performance

Lincoln Educational’s outlook is shaped by continued campus expansion, program innovation, and growing demand for skilled trades and healthcare training.

• Expansion into new markets: Management expects recently opened and upcoming campuses in Texas and New York to drive enrollment and revenue growth, with each new facility designed for higher capacity and future program additions.
• Healthcare program development: The company is pursuing degree-granting approval to offer registered nurse programs, aiming to broaden its addressable market within healthcare education. Management noted that regulatory approvals could take up to four years but would position Lincoln to meet persistent nurse shortages.
• Operational efficiency initiatives: Ongoing investments in the Lincoln 10.0 hybrid model, combined with selective program rationalization, are expected to maintain cost controls and support margin improvement, even as the company scales its operations.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

Looking ahead, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) the enrollment ramp at recently opened and soon-to-launch campuses, (2) progress on regulatory approvals for registered nurse degree programs, and (3) continued adoption of the Lincoln 10.0 hybrid model and its impact on operational efficiency. The trajectory of high school outreach initiatives and healthcare program expansion will also be key signposts for future growth.

Lincoln Educational currently trades at $20, up from $17.82 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

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