Yext’s 25.6% return over the past six months has outpaced the S&P 500 by 8.4%, and its stock price has climbed to $8.40 per share. This was partly thanks to its solid quarterly results, and the run-up might have investors contemplating their next move.
Is now the time to buy Yext, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? See what our analysts have to say in our full research report, it’s free for active Edge members.
Why Do We Think Yext Will Underperform?
We’re glad investors have benefited from the price increase, but we're sitting this one out for now. Here are three reasons there are better opportunities than YEXT and a stock we'd rather own.
1. Weak ARR Points to Soft Demand
While reported revenue for a software company can include low-margin items like implementation fees, annual recurring revenue (ARR) is a sum of the next 12 months of contracted revenue purely from software subscriptions, or the high-margin, predictable revenue streams that make SaaS businesses so valuable.
Yext’s ARR came in at $446.5 million in Q1, and over the last four quarters, its year-on-year growth averaged 9.1%. This performance was underwhelming and suggests that increasing competition is causing challenges in securing longer-term commitments.
2. Long Payback Periods Delay Returns
The customer acquisition cost (CAC) payback period represents the months required to recover the cost of acquiring a new customer. Essentially, it’s the break-even point for sales and marketing investments. A shorter CAC payback period is ideal, as it implies better returns on investment and business scalability.
Yext’s recent customer acquisition efforts haven’t yielded returns as its CAC payback period was negative this quarter, meaning its incremental sales and marketing investments outpaced its revenue. The company’s inefficiency indicates it operates in a highly competitive environment where there is little differentiation between Yext’s products and its peers.
3. Shrinking Operating Margin
Many software businesses adjust their profits for stock-based compensation (SBC), but we prioritize GAAP operating margin because SBC is a real expense used to attract and retain engineering and sales talent. This metric shows how much revenue remains after accounting for all core expenses – everything from the cost of goods sold to sales and R&D.
Looking at the trend in its profitability, Yext’s operating margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points over the last two years. This raises questions about the company’s expense base because its revenue growth should have given it leverage on its fixed costs, resulting in better economies of scale and profitability. Yext’s performance was poor no matter how you look at it - it shows that costs were rising and it couldn’t pass them onto its customers. Its operating margin for the trailing 12 months was negative 6%.
Final Judgment
We cheer for all companies solving complex business issues, but in the case of Yext, we’ll be cheering from the sidelines. With its shares topping the market in recent months, the stock trades at 2.5× forward price-to-sales (or $8.40 per share). This valuation tells us a lot of optimism is priced in - we think there are better stocks to buy right now. We’d recommend looking at one of Charlie Munger’s all-time favorite businesses.
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