It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF). Shares have lost about 16.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Cleveland-Cliffs due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Cleveland-Cliffs Q3 Loss Narrower Than Expected, Revenues Miss
Cleveland-Cliffs' third-quarter 2025 adjusted loss was 45 cents per share. The figure was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 48 cents per share. It reported an adjusted loss of 33 cents per share in the prior-year quarter.
Revenues went up 3.6% year over year to $4,734 million in the quarter. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4,886.6 million.
Operational Highlights
The company reported Steelmaking revenues of roughly $4.6 billion for the third quarter, up around 3% year over year.
The average net selling price per net ton of steel products was $1,032 in the quarter, down around 1.2% year over year. However, the metric beat our estimate of $996.
External sales volumes for steel products were roughly 4.03 million net tons, up around 5% year over year. The figure missed our estimate of 4.3 million net tons.
Financial Position
Cleveland-Cliffs ended the third quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $66 million, up around 8.2% from the prior quarter. Long-term debt increased 4% sequentially to $8,039 million.
As of Sept. 30, 2025, the company had $3.1 billion in total liquidity.
Outlook
The company has revised its full-year 2025 guidance. Capital expenditures are now expected to be approximately $525 million, down from the previously anticipated $600 million. Selling, general and administrative expenses have also been lowered to around $550 million from the earlier estimate of $575 million.
Cleveland-Cliffs continues to target steel unit cost reductions of approximately $50 per net ton compared with 2024. Depreciation, depletion and amortization expenses have been maintained at approximately $1.2 billion. Meanwhile, cash pension and Other Post-Employment Benefits payments and contributions remain unchanged at approximately $150 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted -25.88% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Cleveland-Cliffs has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock has a score of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Cleveland-Cliffs has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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