Is Freeport-McMoRan Bracing for a Tough Q4 After Grasberg Setbacks?

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. FCX saw a rise in its top and bottom line in the third quarter on copper and gold price gains, but lower volumes were a drag. Its copper sales volumes fell approximately 6% year over year in the third quarter to 977 million pounds. The downside primarily resulted from the temporary suspension of operations since the mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia in September 2025, which led to the suspension of operations. The company sold 336,000 ounces of gold, down around 40% year over year.

Freeport’s copper sales volume outlook for the fourth quarter assumes minimal contribution from the Indonesia operation due to the Grasberg mine incident. FCX expects copper sales volumes of 635 million pounds, indicating a 35% sequential and 36% year-over-year decline. The company has also provided a weaker gold sales volume guidance of 60,000 ounces, indicating significant sequential and year-over-year decreases.  

Sales volume growth underpins Freeport’s ability to leverage higher copper and gold prices, maintain margin expansion and deliver on targets for 2025. Despite gains in realized prices, lower expected volumes are likely to strain its financials in the fourth quarter. 
 
Among FCX’s peers, Southern Copper Corporation SCCO logged lower copper sales volumes in the third quarter. Southern Copper sold 234,300 tons of copper in the quarter, declining 3.6% year over year. Southern Copper, however, saw higher molybdenum sales volumes, which rose 7.9% year over year. 

BHP Group Limited BHP saw lower year-over-year copper sales in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended Sept. 30, 2025). BHP Group’s copper sales for the quarter fell roughly 11% year over year to 449 kt. BHP Group’s total first-quarter copper sales also declined around 15% from the prior quarter.

The Zacks Rundown for FCX

Shares of Freeport-McMoRan are up 8.3% year to date against the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s rise of 18.8%.

From a valuation standpoint, FCX is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 21.33, a 5.8% premium to the industry average of 20.17X. It carries a Value Score of B.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 1.4% and 28.5%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been trending lower over the past 60 days.

FCX stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research