Why Lithium Americas Could Be a 2030 Power Play-Not a 2025 One

Demand for lithium is expected to rise sharply in coming years, driven by its essential role in modern technology, including autonomous vehicles, energy storage systems, and drones.

With no established domestic supply chain, the U.S. government took a 5% equity stake in Lithium Americas Corp. (NYSE: LAC) in September 2025.

This strategic investment ensures that Lithium Americas will have the funding to complete its Thacker Pass mine, which will allow the company to begin mining operations in 2026.

This news initially sent LAC stock soaring in October. 

However, this is an example of where hope is not a valid investment thesis. LAC stock is down nearly 30% in the last month on what appears to be profit-taking by active traders.

The long-term case for Lithium Americas is firmly in place. But the real payoff for investors won’t come for several years. Plus, as is the case with many mining and materials stocks, the company’s ability to achieve profitability will be linked to the price of the underlying commodity—lithium. 

Why Earnings Didn’t Move the Needle

LAC stock is down over 6.7% since a spike after its third-quarter earnings report on Nov. 13. The pre-revenue company reported a net loss of $64.4 million, which translates into a loss of 2 cents in adjusted earnings per share (EPS), better than the forecasted loss of 5 cents per share. 

Still, the earnings report offered no surprises. The influx of funds from the U.S. government is allowing the company to commence construction at Thacker Pass, but construction will not be completed until 2027 at the earliest. With no current revenue and long lead times, the update did little to alter investor sentiment.

Traders Are Driving Big Swings in LAC Stock

A significant concern for those who own Lithium America stock for the long haul is that the stock is being actively traded, introducing more volatility than some investors would like. 

For example, LAC stock recently spiked 12% higher on commentary from Ganfeng Lithium Group chairman Li Liangbin, who forecasted global lithium demand growth between 30% and 40% in 2026. Liangbin also projected that the price of lithium could rise between 58% and 110% in 2026, depending on market dynamics. 

That’s all traders needed to hear to bid up the price of LAC stock. However, there's a catch—Lithium Americas hasn’t commenced mining operations, and its Thacker Pass mine isn't scheduled to become operational until 2027. Even after production begins, profits likely won't start until 2030. It’s anyone’s guess where lithium prices will be at that time. 

Analysts Signal a Turning Point for LAC Stock

Active traders capitalized on this anomaly to turn a profit. However, long-term investors may be wondering if the stock still stands to grow in spite of short-term turbulence. 

First, analyst sentiment is turning bullish. The week before earnings, JPMorgan Chase upgraded the stock to Neutral from Underweight and assigned a price target of $5. A week prior to earnings, Scotiabank had an even more bullish upgrade, raising the stock from a Strong Sell to a Hold rating.

Second, from a technical perspective, it appears that LAC stock may be confirming a higher floor around $4.40 per share. The pullback from the Nov. 17 spike came on low volume, hinting at a lack of strong selling pressure. If LAC stock can hold above the $4.63 level—the low of the day—it may confirm near-term support in the $4.40-$4.63 range.

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The article "Why Lithium Americas Could Be a 2030 Power Play—Not a 2025 One" first appeared on MarketBeat.