NVS Ups Sales Projections as Key Drugs and Collaborations Fuel Growth

Novartis NVS recently held an investor event, wherein management projected sales to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5-6% (at constant currencies) for 2025-2030.

Management also upgraded its sales guidance for 2024-2029 to 6% from 5% (projected earlier).

The upgrade can be attributed to continued strong momentum from in-market growth drivers and upcoming launches.

While generic competition for its blockbuster drug Entresto in the United States poses a major headwind, strong performance from key products such as Kisqali, Kesimpta, Pluvicto, and Scemblix continues to support the company’s momentum.

Shares of Novartis have gained 27.8% year to date compared with the industry’s growth of 15.2%.

More on NVS’ Updated Projections

Novartis also raised its peak sales guidance for breast cancer drug Kisqali to more than $10 billion from the earlier projection of over $8 billion.

Kisqali has put up a stellar performance, with sales up 68% to $1.33 billion in the third quarter.  Sales grew across all regions, driven by exemplary growth in the United States with strong momentum from the recently launched early breast cancer (eBC) indication as well as continued share gains in the metastatic breast cancer indication.  

The company now expects peak Scemblix sales of around $4 billion, up from the earlier estimate of $3 billion.

Scemblix sales skyrocketed 95% to $358 million in the third quarter of 2025, driven by continued growth in chronic myeloid leukemia indication and strong momentum from the recently launched early-line indication in the United States and Japan.  

Novartis now has eight de-risked, in-market drugs — Kisqali, Cosentyx, Kesimpta, Pluvicto, Scemblix, Leqvio, Fabhalta, and Rhapsido — each with peak sales potential of $3-$10 billion.

Novartis recently received FDA approval for remibrutinib, under the brand name Rhapsido, as an oral treatment for adult patients with chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) who remain symptomatic despite H1 antihistamine treatment. The approval makes it the first FDA-approved Bruton’s tyrosine kinase inhibitor (BTKi) for CSU.

The company is currently focused on four core therapeutic areas — cardiovascular-renal-metabolic, immunology, neuroscience and oncology.

Key pipeline candidates include ianalumab, pelacarsen, OAV101 IT, del-desiran, abelacimab and farabursen, among others. 
In the first nine months of 2025, NVS registered a core operating income margin of 41.2%, a couple of years ahead of its original target. The company now expects to generate operating margin of more than 40% by 2029. The estimate includes absorbing 1-2 percentage points of dilution from the planned acquisition of San Diego-based Avidity Biosciences, Inc. RNA.

Novartis recently announced that it will acquire RNA for $12 billion to strengthen its late-stage neuroscience pipeline. As part of the agreement, Avidity will spin off its early-stage precision cardiology programs into a new company before the closing of the acquisition.

Avidity is developing RNA therapeutics called Antibody Oligonucleotide Conjugates (AOCs) for serious, genetic neuromuscular diseases.

This acquisition is scheduled to be closed in the first half of 2026, subject to the separation of cardiology programs from Avidity and other customary closing conditions.

Our Take on NVS’ Recent Performance

Novartis’ efforts to strengthen and diversify its broad portfolio as key drugs like Entresto face generic competition are impressive.

Novartis AG Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Novartis AG price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Novartis AG Quote

Approval of new drugs and label expansion of existing drugs should enable the company to offset the adverse impacts of generic competition for Tasigna, Promacta and Entresto.

While organic growth continues to drive business, NVS is focused on strategic acquisitions to strengthen its pipeline.

The recently announced RNA acquisition will strengthen its neuroscience franchise with three late-stage programs that address genetic neuromuscular diseases.

The acquisition of Tourmaline Bio, a New York-based clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company for $1.4 billion, adds a phase III-ready candidate, pacibekitug, to NVS’ cardiovascular pipeline.

In June 2025, Novartis acquired Regulus Therapeutics Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company.

Novartis entered into a second collaboration agreement with Monte Rosa Therapeutics, in addition to the existing license agreement for VAV1 degraders. Under the new agreement, Novartis will receive an exclusive license to an undisclosed discovery target, along with options to license two programs from Monte Rosa’s preclinical immunology portfolio.

NVS has also entered into a global licensing and collaboration agreement with Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals for ARO-SNCA, a preclinical-stage siRNA therapy targeting alpha-synuclein for the treatment of synucleinopathies such as Parkinson’s disease.

NVS’ Zacks Rank and Stocks to Consider

Novartis currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

A couple of better-ranked pharma and biotech stocks are Amicus Therapeutics FOLD and Bayer BAYRY. While FOLD currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Bayer carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

In the past 60 days, estimates for Amicus Therapeutics’ 2025 EPS have increased to 34 cents from 31 cents. During the same time, EPS estimates for 2026 have decreased to 67 cents from 69 cents. Year to date, shares of FOLD have gained 0.3%.

Bayer’s shares have risen 64.2% so far this year. Estimates for 2025 EPS have increased from $1.37 to $1.40 over the past 60 days, while those for 2026 EPS have risen from $1.44 to $1.45. 


 

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