Record Thanksgiving Travel Expected: 3 U.S. Airline Stocks to Watch

With the government shutdown a thing of the past, U.S. airlines are expected to be extremely busy in the Thanksgiving travel period this year. The 43-day shutdown, which ended earlier this month, caused financial stress for federal workers who went without paychecks, stranded scores of travelers at airports, among other difficulties.

With numerous flight cancellations, airlines were significantly affected by staffing shortages and adverse weather conditions. The extended government shutdown left air traffic controllers unpaid and placed substantial strain on air traffic control operations. It is worth noting that during the shutdown, the Federal Aviation Administration announced plans to reduce flight capacity at 40 major U.S. airports.

With air travel demand stabilizing, U.S. airlines are likely to fly high, with passenger volumes likely to swell during the Thanksgiving holiday travel period. The record projection by the Airlines for America (A4A) — the trade organization for leading U.S. airlines — for the Thanksgiving travel period (Nov. 21-Dec. 1) highlights the bullish scenario concerning passenger revenues. Following the record-setting projection, monitoring airline stocks like United Airlines UAL, Delta Air Lines DAL and American Airlines AAL appears prudent.

Bullish Thanksgiving Period Forecast

A4A expects airline companies to make hay in the Thanksgiving travel period. The trade group predicted that the Thanksgiving of 2025 will be the busiest season for American air travel carriers.

Per A4A’s forecast, more than 31 million passengers will be transported through U.S. airlines during this Thanksgiving travel period, which is an all-time high. This implies that, on average, 2.8 million passengers will fly per day over the said period, suggesting a 1% rise from the 2024 reported level. U.S. carriers attracted nearly 30.6 million passengers during the Thanksgiving holiday period last period.

To cater to the increased demand, U.S. passenger carriers will offer 45,000 more seats daily over the period on a year-over-year basis. U.S. carriers have invested significantly to upgrade travel services, which bodes well for passengers. Despite tariff-related worries continuing, more Americans are taking vacations, which is another positive.

A4A expects more than 3 million passengers to fly each day on Nov. 29 and Dec. 1, which are likely to be the busiest days during the period. Nov. 30 is expected to attract the most traffic, 3.39 million, followed by 3.09 million on Dec. 1 and 3.05 million on Nov. 29.

Expressing optimism, the trade organization’s president and CEO Chris Sununu said “We’re all looking forward to going home for the holidays. Our carriers have been working to fully prepare for what’s expected to be a record-breaking Thanksgiving.” 

3 Airline Stocks to Keep a Tab on

Given the encouraging backdrop, we believe investors should keep an eye on airline stocks now. The three selected stocks have outperformed the industry year to date over the past six months in terms of price. All three stocks currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

6-Month Price Comparison

United Airlines is based in Chicago. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current and next-year earnings have been revised 5.9% and 4.6% upwards, respectively, over the past 60 days.

Per a CNBC report, UAL expects 6.6 million passengers to fly between Nov. 20 and Dec. 2. The forecast implies a 4% uptick from year-ago levels. International bookings are at a record for the holiday period, up 10% year over year.

American Airlines is based in Fort Worth, TX. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s current and next-year earnings has been revised 81.4% and 13.3% upwards, respectively, over the past 60 days.

AAL expects to operate 80,759 scheduled flights from Nov. 20 through Dec. 2, more than any airline. Peak travel days are expected to be Nov. 30, followed by Dec. 1. AAL expects to handle nearly 5.6 million checked bags during the holiday period.

Delta is based in Atlanta, GA. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s current and next-year earnings has been revised 6.7% and 3.8% upwards, respectively, over the past 60 days.

DAL’s CEO Ed Bastian reassured customers earlier this month, following the end of the government shutdown, that Delta is ready for holiday travel, with all services operating smoothly. Last month, Delta updated its app, thereby offering greater flexibility, enhanced visibility, and new self-service features to simplify the journey.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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