A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Sherwin-Williams (SHW). Shares have lost about 0.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Sherwin-Williams due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Sherwin-Williams’ Q3 Earnings & Revenues Surpass Estimates
Sherwin-Williams reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of $3.35 per share, up around 5.3% from $3.18 in the year-ago quarter.
Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings were $3.59 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.46.
Sherwin-Williams posted revenues of roughly $6.36 billion, up around 3.2% year over year. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.2 billion.
Segmental Review
The Paint Stores Group segment registered net sales of $3.84 billion in the third quarter, up around 5.1% year over year. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.72 billion. The segment's net sales grew, driven by higher selling prices. Profits also increased from leverage on selling, general and administrative expenses.
Net sales in the Consumer Brands Group segment declined 2.6% year over year to $770.1 million, beating the consensus estimate of $740 million. The segment's net sales decreased due to soft DIY demand in North America and Latin America. However, increased net sales in Europe partially offset the decline.
Net sales in the Performance Coatings Group went up roughly 1.7% year over year to around $1.75 billion in the reported quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $1.74 billion. The segment's net sales increased, driven by volume growth, incremental sales from acquisitions and favorable foreign currency translation, offset by unfavorable region and business sales mix.
Financials
During the first nine months of 2025, the company generated $2.36 billion in net operating cash and returned $2.13 billion to its shareholders through dividends and stock repurchases of 4.5 million shares. As of Sept. 30, 2025, Sherwin-Williams had the authorization to buyback 30 million shares of its common stock through open market purchases.
Outlook
For the fourth quarter and full-year 2025, the company anticipates net sales to be up by a low to mid-single-digit and by a low-single-digit percentage, respectively. The effective tax rate is expected to be in the low 20% range for 2025. Net income per share is projected to range between $10.16 and $10.36, while adjusted net income per share is forecasted in the band of $11.25 to $11.45 for the full year. The full-year outlook takes into account the Suvinil acquisition, which closed on Oct. 1.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
VGM Scores
At this time, Sherwin-Williams has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a score of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Sherwin-Williams has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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