A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Expand Energy (EXE). Shares have added about 18.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Expand Energy due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Expand Energy Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Miss, Both Rise Y/Y
Expand Energy reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of 97 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 88 cents. Additionally, the company’s bottom line increased from the year-ago adjusted profit of 16 cents, fueled by strong production and higher natural gas price realization.
Expand Energy’s ‘natural gas, oil and NGL’ revenues of $1.8 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2 billion. However, the top line was outstandingly higher than the year-ago figure of $407 million.
Production & Price Realizations
The company reported the average third-quarter daily production (comprising 92% natural gas) of 7,333 million cubic feet of gas equivalent (MMcfe/day), which jumped 177% from the year-ago level of 2,647 MMcfe/day. The daily production levels also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 7,231 MMcfe/day. Natural gas volume for the period came in at 6,721 MMcfe/day, up 154% year over year. The consensus mark called for 6,681 MMcf/day of natural gas. EXE’s oil production was 17 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/d), while NGL output totaled 85 MBbl/d.
The average sales price for natural gas during the second quarter was $2.81 per Mcf, up 12% from the prior-year realization of $2.51 per Mcf, but was below the consensus mark of $2.84. The average realized oil price was $54.66 per barrel compared with the consensus mark of $54. Meanwhile, the average realized NGL price was $21.62 per barrel, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of$23.27.
Costs & Expenses
Total operating expenses in the quarter rose to $2.2 billion from the year-ago quarter’s $803 million. This was mainly due to an increase in gathering, processing and transportation costs, which were significantly up year over year to $608 million. The company’s marketing cost of $659 million also rose significantly from the year-ago level of $192 million. Furthermore, Expand Energy’s depreciation outlay increased 121% from the third quarter of 2024.
Dividend and Share Repurchases
In the third quarter, the company plans to pay its quarterly base dividend of 57.5 cents per share on Dec. 4, 2025, to its shareholders of record on Nov. 13.
Financial Position
Cash flow from operations totaled $1.2 billion, which increased significantly from the prior-year quarter levels of $422 million, while Expand Energy’s capital expenditure totaled $775 million, leading to a free cash flow of $426 million. It also paid out $349 million in dividends during the period.
As of Sept. 30, 2025, the company had $613 million in cash and cash equivalents. Expand Energy had a long-term debt of $5 billion, reflecting a debt-to-capitalization of 21.6%.
Guidance for Q4 & 2025
Expand Energy is targeting an average daily production in the range of 7,200-7,300 MMcfe for the fourth quarter and 7,100-7,200 MMcfe for full-year 2025. The company has budgeted its capital spending between $685 million and $765 million for the upcoming quarter, while for 2025, the figure is between $2.8 billion and $2.9 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.
VGM Scores
Currently, Expand Energy has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Expand Energy has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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Expand Energy Corporation (EXE): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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