Americans spend heavily over the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, encouraged by free shipping and limited-time deals. This momentum is set to favor several exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly those tied to robust consumer spending. Retail stands out as the biggest winner, while the rise in online shopping also favors technology and payment-processing segments, making the associated ETFs appealing too.
A record 186.9 million people are expected to shop from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, up from 183.4 million last year, according to the NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics. NRF’s Katherine Cullen said retailers are ready with strong deals and convenience as holiday spending remains a key part of consumer budgets.
Black Friday is still the top shopping day, drawing an estimated 130.4 million shoppers, followed by Cyber Monday with 73.9 million. About 67 million people plan to shop on Saturday. It’s worth noting that Thanksgiving falls on November 27 this year, giving retailers an extra day in the all-important holiday season – a period that typically generates about one-third of their annual profits, as mentioned on Reuters.
Spending Strength & Pattern
ICSC’s survey revealed that shoppers expect to spend an average of $542 over the five-day period, up from $529 in 2024, as strong participation across all generations makes the period joyous. Millennials, in particular, are expected lead the spending pattern, with their average spending reaching $764 per person, per the survey.
Spending plans look solid heading into the peak of the holiday shopping season. About 36% of consumers expect to spend more than last year, while another 40% plan to spend the same. Gen Z is leading the trend, with nearly six out of ten saying they’ll boost their spending compared with 2024, per the above-mentioned ICSC article.
The ICSC continued to reveal that 83% of shoppers plan to shop in physical stores and 83% will shop online for delivery, while 58% intend to order online and pick up their purchases in-store. Many plan to combine shopping with dining, entertainment, and holiday-themed experiences.
Fewer Promotions to Support Margins?
Retailers are offering fewer and shorter-lived promotions this year, signaling tighter discount strategies that could support margins, as mentioned by Reuters. However, Walmart’s WMT aggressive Black Friday cuts may pressure rivals to match deals. WMT is heavy on Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF FSTA. WMT shares have gained 17% so far this year (as of Nov. 21, 2025) and gained 2.6% last week, i.e., ahead of the Thanksgiving weekend.
Likely ETF Winners
Against this backdrop, the following exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are likely to win from the Thanksgiving weekend spending. These ETFs include the likes of SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT, Amplify Online Retail ETF IBUY, ProShares Online Retail ETF ONLN, Amplify Digital Payments ETF IPAY, iShares FinTech Active ETF BPAY and Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary ETF PSCD will likely reap the benefits of the Thanksgiving weekend spending.
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Walmart Inc. (WMT): Free Stock Analysis Report State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT): ETF Research Reports Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA): ETF Research Reports Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY): ETF Research Reports Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary ETF (PSCD): ETF Research Reports Amplify Digital Payments ETF (IPAY): ETF Research Reports ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN): ETF Research ReportsThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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