It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL). Shares have lost about 1.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Old Dominion due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Earnings Beat at Old Dominion in Q3
Quarterly earnings per share of $1.28 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.22 but dipped 10.5% year over year. The combination of the decrease in ODFL’s revenue and the increase in its operating ratio resulted in the year-over-year decline in the bottom line in the third quarter.
Revenues of $1.40 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.39 billion but decreased 4.3% year over year. The downside in ODFL’s third-quarter revenues was owing to a 9% decrease in ODFL’s LTL tons per day, which was partially offset by an increase in the company’s LTL revenue per hundredweight. The decrease in LTL tons per day reflects a 7.9% decrease in LTL shipments per day and a 1.2% decrease in LTL weight per shipment (which is an outcome of the softness in the macroeconomic environment). LTL revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharges, grew 4.7% year over year.
Revenues from LTL services came in at $1.39 billion (down 4.3% year over year), which matched our estimate. Revenues from other services fell 7.1% year over year to $12.17 million, which was below our projection of $14.2 million.
In the quarter under review, LTL weight per shipment dipped 1.2%, and LTL revenue per shipment inched up 3.4% year over year. LTL shipments and LTL shipments per day were both down 7.9% on a year-over-year basis. LTL revenue per hundredweight increased 4.7%.
Total operating expenses declined 2.5% year over year to $1.05 billion. The operating income decreased 10.2% year over year to $360.84 million.
Old Dominion exited the September-end quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $46.59 million compared with $24.05 million at the end of the prior quarter. Long-term debt at the end of the third quarter was $64.99 million compared with $149.99 million at the second quarter of 2025-end.
During the first nine months of 2025, ODFL rewarded its shareholders with $177.2 million of cash dividends and $605.4 million in the form of share repurchases.
ODFL generated $437.5 million of net cash from operating activities during the third quarter of 2025. Capital expenditures were $94 million during the reported quarter.
For 2025, ODFL continues to anticipate its aggregate capital expenditures to be around $450 million, which includes planned expenditures of $210 million for real estate and service center expansion projects; $190 million for tractors and trailers; and $50 million for information technology and other assets.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.
VGM Scores
At this time, Old Dominion has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock was allocated a score of F on the value side, putting it in the lowest quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Old Dominion has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Old Dominion belongs to the Zacks Transportation - Truck industry. Another stock from the same industry, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX), has gained 5.2% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2025.
Knight-Swift reported revenues of $1.93 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +2.7%. EPS of $0.32 for the same period compares with $0.34 a year ago.
Knight-Swift is expected to post earnings of $0.38 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +5.6%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.1%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for Knight-Swift. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.
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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL): Free Stock Analysis Report Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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