A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA). Shares have added about 5.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mid-America Apartment Communities due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Mid-America Apartment's Q3 FFO & Revenues Lag Estimates, Rent Declines
MAA reported a third-quarter 2025 core FFO per share of $2.16, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.17. Moreover, the reported figure fell 2.3% year over year.
Results reflected a fall in same-store revenues, with average effective rent per unit declining year over year. However, the REIT witnessed low levels of resident turnover.
Rental and other property revenues of $554.4 million for the third quarter missed the consensus mark of $556.1 million. However, the reported figure was marginally higher than the year-ago quarter’s tally.
Quarter in Detail
The same-store portfolio’s revenues fell 0.3% on a year-over-year basis. MAA experienced a decline of 0.4% in the average effective rent per unit. The same-store portfolio’s property operating expenses rose 2.3% on a year-over-year basis. As a result, the same-store portfolio’s NOI fell 1.8%.
The average physical occupancy for the same-store portfolio in the third quarter was 95.6%. Our estimate for the same was 95.5%.
As of Sept. 30, 2025, resident turnover in the same-store portfolio remained historically low at 40.2%. This stemmed from record-low levels of move-outs related to buying single-family homes (10.8/%).
During the third quarter, MAA's same-store effective blended lease rate growth was 0.3%, with the effective new lease rate dropping 5.2%, while the effective renewal lease rate grew 4.5%.
Portfolio Activity
In August 2025, MAA closed on the acquisition of a stabilized multi-family apartment community comprising 318 units, built in 2024, in the Kansas City market. In October 2025, MAA acquired a land parcel adjacent to the acquired community for the future development of a phase II multi-family expansion.
As of Sept.30, 2025, MAA had seven communities under development, with total expected costs of $797 million. Moreover, during the third quarter, MAA completed the development of one community and leased up three communities.
Balance Sheet Position
MAA exited the third quarter of 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of $32.2 million, down from $54.5 million recorded as of June 30, 2025.
As of Sept. 30, 2025, MAA had a strong balance sheet with $814.7 million in combined cash and capacity available under its unsecured revolving credit facility. In October 2025, the company increased its borrowing capacity to $1.5 billion, with an option to expand it to $2 billion through an amendment to its unsecured revolving credit facility.
As of Sept. 30, 2025, MAA had a net debt/adjusted EBITDAre ratio of 4.2 times, and the total debt outstanding was $5.2 billion. Its total debt average years to maturity was 6.3 years.
2025 Guidance
This residential REIT revised its projections and now expects 2025 core FFO per share in the range of $8.68-$8.80 compared with $8.65-$8.89 guided earlier, with the midpoint being reduced to $8.74.
For 2025, management anticipates same-store property revenue growth of -0.25% to 0.15%, with the revised midpoint now at -0.05% compared with 0.10% growth projected earlier. Operating expense growth is expected in the range of 1.80%-2.60%, with the midpoint declining to 2.20% from 2.25% growth expected earlier. As a result, the same-store NOI is anticipated to decrease between 1.90% and 0.40%, with the midpoint remaining unchanged at a drop of 1.15%.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.
VGM Scores
At this time, Mid-America Apartment Communities has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Mid-America Apartment Communities has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Mid-America Apartment Communities belongs to the Zacks REIT and Equity Trust - Residential industry. Another stock from the same industry, Equity Residential (EQR), has gained 2.1% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2025.
Equity Residential reported revenues of $782.41 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +4.6%. EPS of $0.76 for the same period compares with $0.98 a year ago.
Equity Residential is expected to post earnings of $1.04 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.1%.
Equity Residential has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of D.
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Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA): Free Stock Analysis Report Equity Residential (EQR): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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