It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Amerisafe (AMSF). Shares have added about 2.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Amerisafe due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
AMERISAFE Q3 Earnings Met Estimates, New Business Growth Aids
AMERISAFE reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of 55 cents, which matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The bottom line fell 5.2% year over year.
Operating revenues improved 4% year over year to $78 million. Yet, the top line missed the consensus mark by 0.5%.
The quarterly results gained from strong policy retention rates, new business growth and improved underwriting efficiency, which contributed to a rise in net premiums earned and an improved net combined ratio. However, the upside was partly offset by a decline in net investment income and an elevated expense level.
AMSF’s Q3 Performance
Net premiums earned of $71.2 million advanced 6.2% year over year on the back of strong policy retention rates and new business growth. However, the metric fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $72 million.
Net investment income decreased 12.3% year over year to $6.6 million due to reduced investable assets following the special dividend paid in the fourth quarter of 2024. The reported figure marginally missed the consensus mark.
Fee and other income tumbled 24.8% year over year in the quarter under review.
AMERISAFE’s pre-tax underwriting profit amounted to $6.7 million, which rose 9.1% year over year.
Total expenses escalated 5.9% year over year to $64.5 million due to higher loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred, and underwriting and other operating costs.
Operating net income of $10.6 million declined 5.2% year over year in the third quarter.
The net combined ratio improved 30 basis points (bps) to 90.6% and met the consensus mark. The metric was aided by an improved net underwriting expense ratio.
Financial Update (As of Sept. 30, 2025)
AMERISAFE exited the third quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $54.7 million, which advanced 24.3% from the 2024-end level.
Total assets of $1.2 billion inched up 0.6% from the figure at 2024-end.
Shareholders' equity of $274.8 million slipped 6.8% from the 2024-end level.
Book value per share was $14.47 as of Sept. 30, 2025, which decreased 12.3% year over year.
Return on average equity improved 190 bps year over year to 20.5% in the quarter under review.
Capital Deployment Update
AMERISAFE bought back common shares for $1.3 million in the third quarter of 2025. As of Sept. 30, 2025, the company had a leftover repurchase capacity of $24.9 million.
Also, management announced a quarterly cash dividend of 39 cents per share as well as approved a special cash dividend of $1.00 per share. Both the dividends will be paid out on Dec. 12, 2025, to its shareholders of record as of Dec. 5.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.
VGM Scores
At this time, Amerisafe has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, Amerisafe has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Amerisafe belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Accident and Health industry. Another stock from the same industry, Globe Life (GL), has gained 1.8% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2025.
Globe Life reported revenues of $1.52 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +4.1%. EPS of $4.81 for the same period compares with $3.49 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Globe Life is expected to post earnings of $3.44 per share, indicating a change of +9.6% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.6% over the last 30 days.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Globe Life. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.
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AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF): Free Stock Analysis Report Globe Life Inc. (GL): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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