Wall Street’s forecasts for 2026 have started to hit the market, with some strategists projecting that the S&P 500 could rise to as high as 8,000 thanks to the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. The S&P 500 stood at 6,849.09 as of Nov. 28, 2025. If the index reaches the 8,000-mark by 2026, it would represent a 17% gain.
Among the most optimistic is Deutsche Bank, which argues that the ongoing investment flows, strong buybacks and persistent earnings strength set the stage for “mid-teens returns” next year, as mentioned on a Yahoo Finance article.
The bank, which predicts an 8,000-mark for the S&P 500 in 2026, highlighted that the S&P 500 companies posted 13.4% earnings growth in the third quarter of 2025, according to FactSet, and expects valuations to stay elevated through 2026. Their outlook stressed strong fundamentals across corporate America.
HSBC and JPMorgan Point to 7,500
Several other major banks cluster around a 7,500 target. HSBC expects the index to rise to 7,500 in 2026, while JPMorgan sees the index reaching the 7,500-level, with room to touch 8,000 if the Federal Reserve cuts rates more aggressively, the same Yahoo Finance article noted.
JPMorgan strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas expects earnings to grow between 13% and 15% over the next two years, thanks to deregulation and the expanding productivity benefits of AI, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.
Wells Fargo & Morgan Stanley Predicts 7,800
Wells Fargo projects a year-end 2026 target of 7,800 alongside a double-digit gain over the next 12 months. However, Wells Fargo warns that the AI boom could turn into a bubble. Household wealth is likely to drive stock market gains.
Morgan Stanley also expects the index to finish 2026 at 7,800 and it could mark a new bull market. Policy support as well as earnings strength will help markets next year, as mentioned in the above-mentioned Yahoo Finance article.
Rising Fed Rate Cut Bets
Markets have already shifted in that direction, with traders pricing in an 87.4% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting — a jump from 63% a month ago (at the time of writing), according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Earnings Growth Projections
Total earnings, or aggregate net income, for the S&P 500 in 2025 are expected to rise 11%, with 2026 earnings projected to increase 11.8%, per Earnings Trends issued on Nov. 19, 2025. Revenue growth for full-year 2025 and 2026 is forecast at 5.2% and 6.7%, respectively. Margins are expected to be 0.70% in 2025 and 0.63% in 2026.
S&P 500-Based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in Focus
Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few S&P 500-based ETFs that could be tapped now. These ETFs include Vanguard S&P 500 ETF VOO, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF IVV and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): ETF Research Reports Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO): ETF Research Reports iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV): ETF Research ReportsThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
Zacks Investment Research
