Vertex Up 9.2% in 3 Months: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX stock has risen 9.2% in the past three months. However, the stock has significantly underperformed the industry’s 16.1% increase. 

VRTX Stock Underperforms Industry

Vertex stock took a beating in comparison with its industry despite reporting strong third-quarter results. It beat estimates for both earnings and sales. However, shares of Vertex declined as sales of its newer drugs, Journavx and Casgevy, missed expectations.

Also, the company tightened its total revenue guidance for full-year 2025 from a range of $11.85-$12 billion to $11.9 to $12.0 billion. The updated guidance indicates flattish sequential growth in the fourth quarter, which is unimpressive.

Vertex’s underperformance compared to the industry has left investors wondering if they should sellthe stock now or hold a little longer. Let’s understand the company’s strengths and weaknesses to better analyze how to play VRTX stock amid this scenario.

Consistent Rise in VRTX’s CF Product Sales

Vertex holds a dominant position in the cystic franchise (CF) market. With its five CF medicines, Vertex is treating nearly 75% of the 94,000 patients living with CF in the United States, Europe, Canada and Australia.

Its CF sales continue to grow, driven by demand growth of Trikafta/Kaftrio in younger age groupsand the launch of Alyftrek, a next-in-class triple combination regimen and its fifth CF medicine.

Vertex is also evaluating its medicines in younger patient populations and aims to have small-molecule treatments for most people with CF. Vertex is developing an mRNA therapeutic, VX-522, in partnership with Moderna MRNA for approximately 5,000 people with CF who do not make the CFTR protein and who cannot benefit from its CFTR modulators. A single ascending dose (SAD) portion of a phase I/II clinical study on VX-522 is complete, while a multiple ascending dose (MAD) portion of the study is ongoing.

Vertex’s New Products Sales Performance Mixed

Though Vertex revenues are primarily being driven by the strong performance of its CF franchise, investor focus is more on the performance of its newer drugs, Alyftrek, Journavx and Casgevy, which hold the key to long-term growth. However, their sales growth seems to be slower than expected. While sales from Alyftrek were decent in the third quarter, Journavx and Casgevy’s sales missed expectations.

Alyftrek, a once-a-day oral triple combination regimen for CF, was approved in the United States in December 2024 and in the EU in July 2025. Vertex said that the U.S. launch of Alyftrek is progressing well across all patient groups, while in ex-U.S. markets, the early launch of Alyftrek is off to a strong start in multiple European countries where patients have reimbursed access. Vertex believes Alyftrek provides further improvements in CFTR function than Trikafta, as measured by sweat chloride. It is indicated for additional rare mutations and offers the convenience of once-daily dosing, thus showing the potential to become a standard of care for CF.

Journavx, a novel non-opioid pain medicine (suzetrigine), was approved in the United States in January. Though Journavx’s sales did not improve as expected in the third quarter. Journavx’s launch metrics and early reimbursement progress look promising. Journavx generated sales of $32.9 million in the first nine months of 2025. Vertex expects higher sales from Journavx in the fourth quarter as prescription volumes are rising. 

Vertex and partner CRISPR Therapeutics’ CRSP one-shot gene therapy, Casgevy, was approved for two blood disorders, sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia, in multiple regions in late 2023/early 2024. Vertex leads the global development and commercialization of Casgevy under the terms of the 2021 agreement with support from CRISPR Therapeutics.

Casgevy sales of $16.9 million in the third quarter declined 44.4% on a sequential basis. Casgevy sales also fell short of our model estimate of $35 million.

Vertex expects over $100 million in Casgevy revenues this year and significant growth in 2026. Vertex recorded $61.5 million in Casgevy revenues in the first nine months of 2025.

While reimbursement progress and launch metrics for both Journavx and Casgevy are promising, the revenue misses raise concern. We believe the drugs may take time to make a meaningful contribution to the top line.

Vertex’s Robust Mid-Stage Pipeline

While Vertex’s main focus is on the development and strengthening of its CF franchise, the company also has a rapidly advancing mid- to late-stage pipeline in other disease areas beyond CF, like acute and neuropathic pain, APOL1-mediated kidney disease, IgA nephropathy (IgAN) and primary membranous nephropathy (pMN). Many of these candidates represent multibillion-dollar opportunities. Five of these programs are in pivotal development, setting the stage for several potential regulatory filings in 2026 and early 2027, and potential new drug approvals in a couple of years.

Lately, Vertex’s candidates for kidney diseases have been capturing investor attention, mainly povetacicept, which was added to Vertex’s pipeline with last year’s Alpine acquisition. Vertex believes povetacicept has a “pipeline in a product” potential. Povetacicept is designed to target two proteins, namely BAFF and APRIL, which are jointly responsible for the cause of multiple serious autoimmune diseases. Enrollment is complete in a phase III study on povetacicept for the treatment of IgAN. A rolling BLA filing for povetacicept for IgAN is expected to begin by the end of 2025 and be completed in the first half of 2026 for potential accelerated approval in the United States. Vertex has also initiated a pivotal phase II/III study of povetacicept for a second potential renal indication, pMN.

Vertex expects its kidney portfolio to become a significant growth driver over the next several years.

However, the company faced a couple of setbacks related to its pipeline this year.

In August 2025, Vertex’s phase II study on the oral formulation of VX-993 for treating acute pain after bunionectomy surgery failed to demonstrate a statistically significant improvement on the primary endpoint. Following the disappointing results, the company decided not to advance VX-993 into pivotal development as a monotherapy for acute pain, as it felt that it would not be superior to its other NaV1.8 inhibitors.

In March 2025, Vertex discontinued the development of VX-264 (cells device program) for the treatment of type 1 diabetes, as a phase I/II study on the candidate failed to meet its efficacy endpoint.

VRTX’s Valuation and Estimates

From a valuation standpoint, Vertex is slightly expensive. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 21.93 forward earnings, higher than 17.0 for the industry. The stock is, however, trading below its five-year mean of 24.04.

VRTX Stock Valuation

VRTX Estimate Movement

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has risen from $17.82 to $18.30 per share over the past 30 days, while that for 2026 has risen from $19.66 to $19.88.

Stay Invested in VRTX Stock

Vertex’s dependence on just the CF franchise for its revenues is a concern. While the company has other pipeline candidates targeting various diseases and some new non-CF drugs, such as Casgevy and Journavx, it will take a couple of years to bring in significant non-CF sales. Vertex’s non-CF pipeline programs also carry significant risk.

However, we believe Vertex is a good stock to have in one’s portfolio, considering its strong overall financial performance and robust pipeline progress. Vertex faces minimal competition in the CF franchise. Its CF sales are expected to remain strong despite a slight slowdown in the growth rate. Casgevy and Journavx provide the necessary diversification from the CF franchise. Consistently rising estimates also reflect analysts’ optimistic outlook for future growth in profits.

Those who already own the stock may retain it for some time to see if its CF sales continue to rise and if Casgevy and Journavx’s sales improve in future quarters. Vertex presently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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