Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz on Margin of Sanity’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on KSPI. Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz's share was trading at $77.31 as of November 28th. KSPI’s trailing P/E was 7.01 according to Yahoo Finance.

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. KSPI is a unique high-growth, capital-light fintech and e-commerce platform operating primarily in Kazakhstan, with recent expansion into Turkey via Hepsiburada. The company’s balance sheet is exceptionally strong, with over 2 trillion KZT in cash and cash-like assets, netting out minimal long-term bank debt.

A significant portion of its investment securities are Kazakhstan government bonds, providing relatively stable, though concentrated, exposure. Customer loans and deposits are roughly equal, indicating sound liquidity management, while KDIF insurance further mitigates systemic risk. Core KPIs continue to show double-digit organic growth across gross merchant volume, total payment volume, and total finance volume, driven by both legacy businesses and newer verticals like travel, taxi, and grocery. Marketplace revenue surged YoY, partly due to the Turkish acquisition, although net income was slightly impacted by Hepsiburada’s lack of profitability.

Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors remain key risks. Kazakhstan’s currency, the tenge, has historically been volatile, influenced by oil prices, the Russian ruble, interest rates, and global risk sentiment. While Russian influence remains a concern, a full-scale invasion of Kazakhstan is highly improbable due to economic, strategic, and Chinese geopolitical considerations. Inflation and currency depreciation introduce a potential 8% drag on USD-denominated earnings, but Kaspi’s growth still exceeds this threshold.

Turkey offers optional growth upside, but carries political and economic uncertainty, including high inflation and executive-driven monetary risk. The Hepsiburada acquisition represents a modest investment relative to Kaspi’s earnings and cash flow.

At 7x TTM earnings, with approximately 25% of market cap in cash and bonds, Kaspi presents a rare combination of defensive liquidity and structural growth. Despite geopolitical and macro risks, the company’s operational execution, capital-light model, and continued growth trajectory make it an attractive hedge against overvalued U.S. equities while providing exposure to emerging fintech and e-commerce markets.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz by Easy Trader in April 2025, which highlighted its dominant fintech ecosystem, strong profitability, and significant undervaluation. The company's stock price has depreciated approximately by 18.22% since our coverage. This is because the thesis didn’t play out. The thesis still stands as Kaspi’s expansion and capital-light model remain intact. Margin of Sanity shares a similar but emphasizes on updated financial strength and liquidity.

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Disclosure: None.