Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Medpace Holdings, Inc. on Archive Invest’s Substack by Felix. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MEDP. Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s share was trading at $592.46 as of November 28th. MEDP’s trailing and forward P/E were 41.40 and 37.17  respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Medpace Holdings, Inc. provides clinical research-based drug and medical device development services in North America, Europe, and Asia. MEDP has demonstrated strong operational execution and strategic capital allocation, which the market has yet to fully appreciate. In Q2 2025, the company reported $603.3 million in revenue, up 14.2% year-over-year, and $130.5 million in EBITDA with 21.6% margins, driven by efficient backlog conversion and disciplined execution. Rather than hoarding cash, Medpace deployed $518.5 million to repurchase 1.75 million shares, leaving just $46 million on hand, underscoring management’s confidence in the company’s integrated clinical research model.

Unlike competitors that rely on acquisitions or outsourced capabilities, Medpace offers a fully integrated suite of services—from Phase I through Phase IV trials, central lab services, bioanalytical testing, and regulatory support—enabling faster, more reliable trial execution with lower risk. This operational predictability has translated into growing market share, evidenced by a 12.6% increase in net new business awards, even amid a challenging biotech funding environment.

Medpace’s competitive edge lies in risk mitigation and execution certainty, rather than price competition, making it particularly attractive to mid-cap biotech clients managing tight cash runways. The company continues to invest in AI-driven patient recruitment and analytics, creating barriers to entry and reinforcing client stickiness. Guidance for 2025 projects $2.42–$2.52 billion in revenue and $515–$545 million in EBITDA, reflecting profitable, sustainable growth.

With minimal need for incremental capital expenditures, Medpace can continue returning cash to shareholders, exemplified by $913 million in year-to-date buybacks. The combination of operational excellence, market share gains, and aggressive capital returns positions Medpace as a unique investment opportunity with upside potential as the market recognizes the value being created for shareholders.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) by Compound & Fire in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s integrated CRO model, strong capital efficiency, and growth potential in biotech. The stock has appreciated approximately 93.62% since coverage as operational execution and client retention drove results. Felix shares a similar view but emphasizes recent aggressive buybacks, Q2 performance, and market share gains.

Medpace Holdings, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 42 hedge fund portfolios held MEDP at the end of the second quarter which was 42 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of MEDP as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.