Grindr Inc. (GRND): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Grindr Inc. on Acid Investments’s Substack by N.R98. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on GRND. Grindr Inc.'s share was trading at $12.83 as of November 28th. GRND’s trailing P/E was 134.66 according to Yahoo Finance.

Grindr Inc. operates a social networking and dating application for the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) communities worldwide. GRND is currently at the center of a unique take-private opportunity following a sharp decline in its share price, which now trades at its lowest valuation since listing. The recent market pressure was exacerbated by margin calls on key stakeholders, notably James Lu, whose forced sales triggered a steep drop below the rumored $15 acquisition threshold.

The process was formalized with a 13D filing, confirming preliminary conditional debt financing of up to $1 billion, likely from Fortress, with an acquisition price no lower than $15 per share. Management and other significant holders are allowed to roll their shares into the proposed transaction, which could resolve the overhang created by James’ stake and facilitate a majority squeeze-out. Raymond Zage and James Lu collectively control 64% of GRND’s outstanding shares, positioning them to drive the privatization process.

Despite market skepticism, the fundamentals of GRND remain robust. The company has consistently delivered over 30% top-line growth since FY21, with FY25 guidance reflecting 24–27% revenue growth and 41–43% EBITDA margins. With approximately 200 million diluted shares at a $12 trading price, GRND trades at ~13.5x EBITDA, implying a ~25% upside to a $15 per share takeout, and a potential pro forma EV of $2.8–3.3 billion.

Longer-term, FY27 EBITDA is projected at $245 million, equating to ~10x EBITDA, while under-monetized advertising offers further growth potential. Risks remain around additional financing needs, potential CFIUS scrutiny, and execution of the take-private.

Overall, GRND presents a rare opportunity where near-term market dislocations, strategic management alignment, and strong underlying growth create a compelling risk/reward setup, with a conditional $15 takeout providing significant upside relative to current depressed levels. Investors could benefit from both event-driven catalysts and the company’s resilient topline and margin profile.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Grindr Inc. (GRND) by Welfare Capital in April 2025, which highlighted the company’s strong growth potential, efficient operations, and dominant position in the LGBT dating app market. The company's stock price has depreciated approximately by 32.18% since our coverage due to recent margin calls and market pressure. The thesis still stands as GRND maintains robust growth, while N.R98 emphasizes the current take-private opportunity.

Grindr Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 32 hedge fund portfolios held GRND at the end of the second quarter which was 29 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of GRND as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.