Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Nebius Group N.V. on MVC Investing’s Substack by M. V. Cunha. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on NBIS. Nebius Group N.V.'s share was trading at $94.87 as of November 28th. NBIS’s trailing  P/E was 163.47 according to Yahoo Finance.

Nebius Group NV, a technology company, engages in building full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI industry in the Netherlands, Europe, North America, and Israel. NBIS is the largest position in the authors portfolio at a $25.67/share average cost, remains the company whose execution inspires the most conviction.

Following a strong Q2 that exceeded expectations despite cautious sentiment due to the Toloka deconsolidation, NBIS appears positioned for another broad-based beat, though the real focus now shifts to strategic progress rather than quarterly upside. Investors will be closely watching year-end ARR guidance, where a raise is possible even without the New Jersey data center coming online, especially as the Israel facility is ready ahead of schedule and the UK site is already operating with 4,000 B300 GPUs.

Clarity on the Phase 1 timeline in New Jersey could meaningfully influence the outlook, since early availability of the first 50 MW would support a substantial guidance uplift driven by straightforward utilization under the Microsoft deal. Capacity expansion is another key theme, particularly updates on the two new U.S. greenfield locations and the recently purchased 79-acre Alabama site, which may set the stage for an additional hyperscaler partnership. More details on the Microsoft contract—including the prepayment referenced by Goldman Sachs—could lead to an update of mid-term guidance, which previously assumed no major deals.

Margin progression will also be monitored, with expectations for continued gross margin expansion and a reaffirmation of the 20–30% mid-term EBIT margin target. New enterprise wins, updates on Token Factory and AI Studio, and any commentary on the $375M joint investment with Uber in Avride would further strengthen the narrative. With demand remaining exceptionally strong and U.S. expansion accelerating, NBIS continues to execute with uncommon discipline and ambition, reinforcing confidence in a long runway ahead.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) by Oliver | MMMT Wealth in April 2025, which highlighted the company’s long-term scalability, GPU deployment plans, and compelling valuation. The company's stock price has appreciated approximately by 350.68% since our coverage. This is because the thesis largely played out. The thesis still stands as NBIS continues executing its roadmap. M. V. Cunha shares a similar view but emphasizes strategic progress and hyperscaler opportunities.

Nebius Group N.V. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 45 hedge fund portfolios held NBIS at the end of the second quarter which was 51 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of NBIS as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.