A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Molson Coors Brewing (TAP). Shares have added about 2.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Molson Coors due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Molson Coors Posts Q3 Earnings & Sales Miss, Soft 2025 View
Molson Coors has posted third-quarter 2025 results, wherein the top and bottom lines missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Both sales and earnings per share declined year over year.
The company’s adjusted earnings of $1.67 per share declined 7.2% year over year and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.72.
Net sales dropped 2.3% year over year on a reported basis and 3.3% on a constant-currency basis to $2.97 billion, and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.02 billion. The decline was due to lower financial volumes, partly offset by an improved price and sales mix, and favorable currency.
Molson Coors’ Q3 Details
Financial volumes decreased 6% year over year due to lower shipments across the Americas and EMEA&APAC segments. Brand volumes fell 4.5%, with a 4.4% dip in the Americas and a 5% decline in the EMEA&APAC segment.
Net sales were positively influenced by the price and sales mix, which increased 2.7% year over year, driven by a favorable sales mix and higher net pricing. Net sales per hectoliter (hl) rose 4% on a reported and 2.9% on a constant-currency basis.
Gross profit decreased 2.4% year over year to $1.17 billion and the gross margin fell 5 basis points (bps) to 39.47% in the quarter.
TAP’s Segmental Information
Americas: Net sales in the segment fell 3.6% year over year to $2.26 billion on a reported basis and 3.5% on a constant-currency basis. The decline was due to lower financial volumes, offset by a favorable price and sales mix. Sales in the segment missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.32 billion.
Financial volumes were down 6.5% year over year, resulting from lower U.S. brand volumes, and a 3% impact of lower contract brewing volume due to the exit of contract brewing arrangements across the United States and Canada at the end of 2024. This was partly negated by the favorable timing of U.S. shipments. Brand volumes in the Americas were down 4.4%, including a 4.9% decline in the United States due to the macroeconomic impacts of industry softness and a lower share performance.
EMEA&APAC: The segment’s net sales rose 2.4% year over year to $721 million and fell 2.4% on a constant-currency basis. Reported sales benefited from a improved price and sales mix, and favorable currency effects, partially offset by lower financial volumes. The price and sales mix improved 2.5%, driven by geographic mix, premiumization and higher factored brand volumes, along with improved net pricing. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s sales was pegged at $715 million.
Financial and brand volumes dipped 4.9% and 5%, respectively, due to lower volumes across all regions, led by soft market demand and a heightened competitive landscape. The segment’s underlying EBT declined 15.1% year over year on a constant-currency basis due to lower financial volumes. This was partially offset by reduced MG&A expenses, led by lower incentive compensation and cost-saving initiatives.
Financial Updates for TAP
Molson Coors ended the third quarter of 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of $950.2 million. As of Sept. 30, 2025, the company had a total debt of $6.29 billion, resulting in a net debt of $5.34 billion.
Net cash provided by operating activities amounted to $1.24 billion for the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2025. Moreover, it recorded a negative underlying free cash flow of $782.1 million for the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2025, mainly due to a lower operating cash flow.
In the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2025, Molson Coors paid out dividends of $285.7 million and repurchased shares worth $332.8 million, including brokerage commissions.
What to Expect From TAP in 2025?
Although Molson Coors has reiterated its 2025 guidance for select key financial metrics, it anticipates the results around the lower end of these ranges.
Molson Coors projects a year-over-year sales decline of 3-4% on a constant-currency basis for 2025. The company anticipates 2025 underlying EPS to decline 7-10% year over year.
The company estimates a capital expenditure of $650 million (plus or minus 5%) for 2025. The underlying free cash flow is expected to be $1.3 billion, plus or minus 10%.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month.
VGM Scores
At this time, Molson Coors has a average Growth Score of C, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Molson Coors has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
Zacks Investment Research
