Radian (RDN) Up 4.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Radian (RDN). Shares have added about 4.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Radian due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Radian Group Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Radian Group Q3 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Improve Y/Y

Radian Group Inc. reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted operating income of $1.15 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 21%. Moreover, the bottom line increased 4.5% year over year. Operating revenues decreased 1.6% year over year to $302 million due to lower net investment income and other income. The metric missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.7%. The results reflected solid performance in the Mortgage Insurance segment, higher primary mortgage insurance in force, and growing premiums earned, partially offset by higher expenses.

Quarter in Details

Net premiums earned were $237 million, up 0.8% year over year. Net investment income decreased 8.5% year over year to $63.4 million.
MI New Insurance Written increased 14.8% year over year to $15.5 billion.
Primary mortgage insurance in force increased 2.1% year over year to $281 billion.

Persistency — the percentage of mortgage insurance in force that remains in the company’s books after a 12-month period — was 84% as of Sept. 30, 2025, which remained unchanged year over year.

Primary delinquent loans were 23,819 as of Sept. 30, 2025, up 6.5% year over year. Total expenses increased 5.4% year over year to $104.5 million. The expense ratio was 25.6, down 40 bps from the year-ago quarter.

Financial Update

As of Sept. 30, 2025, Radian Group reported a solid cash balance of $15.3 million, which decreased 20.6% from the 2024-end level. The debt-to-capital ratio remains unchanged from the 2024-end level to 18.7. Book value per share, a measure of net worth, climbed 9.5% year over year to $34.34 as of Sept. 30, 2025.

Shareholders’ equity increased 0.6% from the level on Dec. 31, 2024, to $4.6 billion as of Sept. 30, 2025. In the third quarter, adjusted net operating return on equity was 13.9%, which contracted 80 bps year over year.

As of Sept. 30, 2025, Radian Guaranty’s Available Assets under PMIERs totaled approximately $6 billion, resulting in PMIERs excess Available Assets of $1.9 billion.

Dividend Update

Radian Guaranty distributed $600 million to Radian Group in the first nine months of 2025, which includes a $200 million ordinary dividend in the third quarter of 2025. Radian Guaranty has the capacity to pay up to $195 million of additional distributions to Radian Group in the fourth quarter of 2025.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Analysts were quiet during the last two month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.

VGM Scores

At this time, Radian has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Radian has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Radian is part of the Zacks Insurance - Multi line industry. Over the past month, Principal Financial (PFG), a stock from the same industry, has gained 5.9%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2025 more than a month ago.

Principal Financial reported revenues of $3.9 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +6.2%. EPS of $2.10 for the same period compares with $1.76 a year ago.

Principal Financial is expected to post earnings of $2.22 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +14.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.9%.

Principal Financial has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of C.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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