A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Mosaic (MOS). Shares have lost about 7.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mosaic due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for The Mosaic Company before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Mosaic's Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates in Q3, Up Y/Y
Mosaic reported earnings of $1.29 per share for the third quarter of 2025, up from 38 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were $1.04, up from 34 cents a year ago. It topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 98 cents.
Net sales rose nearly 23% year over year to roughly $3.45 billion in the quarter. The metric beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.44 billion.
Segment Highlights
Net sales in the Potash segment were $695 million in the reported quarter, up around 32% from the prior-year quarter. Sales volume totaled 2.3 million tons, up from 2 million tons a year ago. The figure missed our estimate of 2.4 million tons. The segment’s gross margin rose to $104 per ton from $61 per ton in the year-ago quarter. The average MOP selling price increased to $271 per ton from $215 per ton.
The Phosphate division’s net sales were $1.3 billion, up from $1 billion in the year-ago quarter. Sales volume in the segment totaled 1.6 million tons, up from 1.5 million tons last year. The figure was below our estimate of 2 million tons. The gross margin in the quarter was $92 per ton, down from $96 per ton. The average DAP selling price rose to $714 per ton from $569 per ton a year ago.
Net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment were $1.6 billion in the quarter, up from $1.4 billion a year ago. Sales volume in the quarter was 2.8 million tons, down modestly from 2.9 million tons in the prior-year quarter. The figure lagged our estimate of 2.9 million tons. The gross margin in the quarter was $65 per ton, up from $44 per ton in the prior-year quarter.
Financials
At the end of the quarter, Mosaic had cash and cash equivalents of $153.3 million, down 46% from the prior quarter. Long-term debt was $3.37 billion, up around 1% sequentially.
Net cash provided by operating activities was $228.5 million in the reported quarter.
Outlook
Mosaic expects potash sales volumes for the fourth quarter to be between 2.3 and 2.6 million tons, with realized mine gate MOP prices projected in the range of $270-$280 per ton.
Phosphate sales volumes are forecast to be 1.7-1.9 million tons for the fourth quarter. DAP prices on an FOB basis are expected to be in the band of $700-$730 per ton.
Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volumes are projected to be modestly below the third quarter due to normal seasonality.
For full-year 2025, the company expects phosphate production volumes to range between 6.3 million and 6.5 million tons, while potash production is projected at 9.1 million to 9.4 million tons. Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volumes are anticipated to be in the 9.4-9.6-million-ton range.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -16.82% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Mosaic has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Mosaic has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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The Mosaic Company (MOS): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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