Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Shift4 Payments, Inc. on GabGrowth’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on FOUR. Shift4 Payments, Inc.'s share was trading at $70.79 as of December 2nd. FOUR’s trailing and forward P/E were 34.48 and 11.67 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Shift4 has transformed from a small merchant acquirer founded in 1999 by Jared Isaacman into a vertically integrated global payments and commerce technology platform. The company serves over 200,000 businesses across restaurants, retail, hotels, casinos, and e-commerce, providing an end-to-end ecosystem that combines point-of-sale (POS) hardware and software, payment processing, and value-added services such as loyalty programs, fraud prevention, and analytics.

Shift4’s evolution was shaped by an aggressive acquisition strategy—over 18 deals totaling $3.5 billion—that expanded its capabilities and geographic reach, including the landmark $2.5 billion acquisition of Global Blue in 2025, which added 400,000 international merchant locations and a cross-border VAT refund service.

Earlier acquisitions like Finaro, Revel, and Givex established a strong European infrastructure, enterprise-grade POS offerings, and global gift card and loyalty capabilities, respectively. This consolidation has enabled Shift4 to build a unified commerce platform that supports in-person, online, and mobile transactions across markets. Its vertically integrated model—combining software, hardware, and payments—simplifies operations for merchants, reduces vendor fragmentation, and enhances pricing control.

Financially, the company’s growth has been underpinned by recurring transaction revenue with high retention rates above 98% and strong operating leverage from scale. While critics have questioned its acquisition-driven growth and leverage, Shift4 has maintained robust performance, aided by partnerships with major hospitality and entertainment brands. As it transitions leadership from Isaacman to Taylor Lauber, Shift4 appears well-positioned to leverage its global infrastructure and diversified product suite, offering investors exposure to the expanding digital payments and omnichannel commerce ecosystem.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) by Next 100 Baggers in May 2025, which highlighted strong payment volume growth, operating leverage, and M&A-driven synergies. The company’s stock has depreciated approximately 14.97% since our coverage as sentiment softened. The thesis still stands given resilient fundamentals and leadership stability. GabGrowth shares a similar view but emphasizes Shift4’s global expansion and vertical integration.

Shift4 Payments, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 55 hedge fund portfolios held FOUR at the end of the second quarter which was 40 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of FOUR as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.