Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Enphase Energy, Inc. on Value investing subreddit by dayvanzombie. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ENPH. Enphase Energy, Inc.'s share was trading at $28.85 as of November 28th. ENPH’s trailing and forward P/E were 19.76 and 15.02 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Enphase Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells home energy solutions for the solar photovoltaic industry in the United States and internationally. ENPH’s stock decline to $28 and its weak Q4 guidance have led the market to price the company as if residential solar demand is collapsing, but several developments suggest a far more complex—and potentially mispriced—story.

Despite soft near-term revenue expectations, European weakness, and the expiration of the 25D tax credit, insider buying signals confidence: CEO Kothandaraman has purchased over $600K of stock at $30–31 even after guiding down, an unusual move that hints at visibility into a stronger medium-term setup.

Structural policy shifts further complicate consensus. While competitors face steep tariffs on Chinese and Southeast Asian batteries and solar components, Enphase benefits from U.S. manufacturing and lucrative, transferable 45X tax credits, creating a cost and cash-flow advantage the market may be overlooking.

At the same time, the rapid emergence of Virtual Power Plants could reshape Enphase’s business model from consumer hardware to distributed utility infrastructure. Partnerships in Vermont and Texas, accelerating state-level policies, and the DOE’s multi-gigawatt VPP ambitions point to a new revenue stream in utility-grade grid services.

Meanwhile, the coming shift toward third-party ownership in 2026 as the 48E commercial tax credit remains available may sustain residential demand even as cash purchases fade. California’s NEM 3.0 environment—once seen as a headwind—has instead driven battery attachment rates above 50%, improving paybacks and positioning batteries as the core product, reflected in record MWh shipments.

While risks include policy reversals, consumer softness, competitive pressures, and uncertain VPP adoption timelines, Enphase’s cash-rich balance sheet, tariff tailwinds, battery momentum, and potential recurring utility partnerships suggest the company is transitioning rather than shrinking. At a $4.3B market cap with substantial optionality ahead of 2026, the current valuation may underestimate the scale and durability of this shift.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) by OppCost in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s shift toward integrated home energy solutions and its near-term slowdown. The company's stock price has depreciated approximately by 41.97% since our coverage. This is because the thesis didn’t play out amid softer demand. The thesis still stands as long-term fundamentals remain intact. dayvanzombie shares a similar view but emphasizes tariff advantages and VPP-driven upside.

Enphase Energy, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 39 hedge fund portfolios held ENPH at the end of the second quarter which was 40 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of ENPH as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy NOW 

Disclosure: None.