Subdued AUM Performance on Weak Markets to Hurt Invesco's Q1 Earnings

Invesco Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise

Invesco Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Invesco Ltd. Quote

Invesco’s Key Q1 Estimates & Factors to Note

Per the monthly metrics data published by Invesco, its preliminary total AUM as of March 31, 2025, was $1.84 trillion, relatively stable on a sequential basis. The market turmoil because of Trump’s tariff plans since mid-February is likely to have affected inflows. Hence, the company’s investment management fees are expected to have declined. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment management fees is pegged at $1.11 billion, indicating a decrease of 1.5% from the last quarter.

Similarly, the consensus estimate for performance fees of $7 million indicates a 79.4% plunge from the prior quarter.

The consensus estimate for service and distribution fees of $381 million indicates no change. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for other revenues is pegged at $53 million, suggesting a 3.9% rise.

On the cost front, while Invesco’s cost-saving initiatives are likely to have boosted its efficiency, the steady rise in compensation and marketing costs is expected to have had an adverse impact on overall expenses in the to-be-reported quarter.

Management expects the one-time implementation costs of Alpha to be approximately $10-15 million in the first quarter of 2025. Hence, the company expects a modest increase in the overall expenses in the quarter.

What Our Model Predicts for IVZ

According to our proven model, the chances of Invesco beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Invesco is -0.64%

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).

Invesco’s Q1 Earnings and Sales Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Invesco’s earnings of 39 cents has been revised 2.5% lower over the past seven days. The figure indicates a rise of 18.2% from the year-ago quarter. (Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $1.1 billion, suggesting a 4.9% rise.

Finance Stocks Worth Considering

Here are a couple of finance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:

Charles Schwab SCHW is slated to announce first-quarter 2025 results on April 17. The company carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present and has an Earnings ESP of +0.51%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Schwab’s quarterly earnings has been revised 2% north to $1.00 over the past week.

Zions Bancorporation ZION is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 numbers on April 21. The company carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present and has an Earnings ESP of +0.80%.

The consensus estimate for Zions’ quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at $1.20 over the past seven days.