MP Materials Corp. (MP): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on MP Materials Corp. on MVC Investing’s Substack by M. V. Cunha. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MP. MP Materials Corp.'s share was trading at $58.10 as of December 1st. MP’s trailing and forward P/E were 20.97 and 67.11 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

James Litinsky’s journey from a teenage ticket scalper in South Florida to the founder of MP Materials illustrates a combination of foresight, timing, and contrarian thinking. After honing his skills on Wall Street and running JHL Capital through market downturns, Litinsky identified a strategic opportunity in Mountain Pass, a bankrupt rare earth mine in California. Recognizing America’s dependence on China for rare earth processing, he acquired the mine at a fraction of its prior cost and established MP Materials with a vision to rebuild a fully integrated U.S. mine-to-magnet supply chain.

The company now produces roughly 15% of the world’s rare earth content, with Mountain Pass operating as one of the highest-grade, most environmentally efficient mines globally. MP has expanded into refining and magnet production, including the Fort Worth Independence facility, while also pioneering magnet recycling with Apple, aiming to reintroduce recovered rare earths into production. Partnerships with the Department of Defense provide financial stability, guaranteed offtake, and a price floor for NdPr products, while commercial relationships with Apple and General Motors offer scale and revenue visibility.

These collaborations de-risk the business and underpin its strategic importance as a domestic supplier for EVs, clean energy, and defense technologies. While MP has de-risked financing and demand, execution remains the key challenge, as the company ramps refining throughput, magnet production, and recycling operations.

The stock’s valuation already reflects high expectations, up more than 400% YTD, emphasizing operational execution over story appeal. If MP successfully scales its vertically integrated operations, it could secure a transformative role in U.S. industrial independence and deliver substantial long-term value, though near-term volatility and execution risk remain significant considerations.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on MP Materials Corp. (MP) by Steve_Zissouu in April 2025, which highlighted the company’s push for a fully domestic rare earth supply chain, ending shipments to China, and benefiting from U.S. government support. The stock has appreciated approximately 150.53% since coverage. The thesis still stands. M. V. Cunha shares a similar perspective but emphasizes the founder’s contrarian vision, vertical integration, and key partnerships.

MP Materials Corp. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 40 hedge fund portfolios held MP at the end of the second quarter which was 29 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of MP as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.