Can JD's Surging User Base Power Its Next Phase of Revenue Growth?

JD.com JD operates a vertically integrated e-commerce model built on direct procurement, proprietary logistics and strict quality control. This structure offers greater control over inventory and fulfilment than pure marketplace platforms and is expected to remain central as China’s e-commerce market matures and user retention becomes more critical to sustaining profitable growth.

JD’s user base continues to gain momentum. During the third quarter of 2025, quarterly active customers rose above 40% year over year, annual active customers surpassed 700 million in October and shopping frequency climbed more than 40% for a second consecutive quarter. These trends are reshaping revenue composition. Total net revenues grew 14.9% year over year to RMB 299.1 billion, as merchant activity scaled with higher traffic. Broader penetration is expected to keep lifting high-frequency categories that generate steadier engagement.

Ecosystem integration is reinforcing this trajectory. JD Food Delivery is creating daily touchpoints that naturally convert into supermarket and general merchandise purchases, while Jingxi extends its reach into lower-tier cities without diluting JD’s core positioning. Offline expansion through JD Mall and JD Appliance City stores supports tactile product categories and improves last-mile reliability. Technology investments in AI search, personalization and JD Streamer are expected to raise conversion efficiency and lower merchant-side costs as user activity builds.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JD’s 2025 revenues is pegged at $186.3 billion, up 15.8% year over year, indicating expectations that user momentum will continue to support revenue acceleration. However, sustaining this trend will require JD to navigate rising competition, improve efficiency in new businesses and adjust to evolving consumer demand. These factors will determine the extent to which user growth can power JD’s next phase of revenue expansion.

JD Faces Intense Competition

Competition remains intense as JD, PDD Holdings PDD and Alibaba BABA pursue different routes to user-driven growth. PDD Holdings continues to expand quickly in price-sensitive segments, while using Temu’s global reach and aggressive pricing to attract high-volume users. PDD Holdings also relies heavily on social commerce loops to sustain engagement. Alibaba is refocusing Taobao and Tmall on efficiency, with Alibaba emphasizing stronger conversion tools and ecosystem coordination. Alibaba is expected to lean more on services and content to retain users. Against both, JD’s differentiation comes from fulfillment reliability and merchandise quality, helping it convert and retain users even as PDD Holdings and Alibaba compete on scale and price.

JD.com's Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of JD.com have declined 12% in the past six months, underperforming the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry and Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector’s return of 5.1% and 4.6%, respectively.

JD’s Price Performance

From a valuation standpoint, JD.com is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 9.73X, lower than the industry’s 24.36X. JD carries a Value Score of B.

JD’s Valuation

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JD’s 2025 earnings is pegged at $2.82 per share, up by two cents over the past 30 days. The earnings figure suggests a 33.8% decline year over year.

JD.com, Inc. Price and Consensus

JD.com, Inc. price-consensus-chart | JD.com, Inc. Quote

JD.com currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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